The Case for Ohio State to make the CFB Playoff

Let me begin by pointing out that I hate Ohio State with every fiber of my being. I grew up a Michigan fan, I attended Purdue, there was no space for appreciation of the Buckeyes in my mind. But even while blinded by hatred, I can tell you one simple thing:

Ohio State is about to be screwed out of their chance to play for a national championship.

The 11-1 Buckeyes are sure to be passed over by the 11-1 Sooners under the guise of “Geographic Diversity” or some similar excuse, because there’s no case for saying that the Sooners are more deserving than the Buckeyes. Here’s why:

1. Similar Strength of Schedule, different results

The Sooners and Buckeyes both played to very similar schedules. Using the AMSTS Computer Rankings final season values, the Sooners average opponent’s rank was 58, while the Buckeyes was 56, giving the Buckeyes a slight, but not highly valuable edge. Where the value comes in, however, is when you look at the margin of victory in some of these games. Yes, margin of victory isn’t the fairest metric because it hurts strong defensive teams, but the style of play between the Sooners and Buckeyes is similar enough that the comparison is valid. Against the Top 50, Oklahoma State went 5-0, with 3 wins being by 10 points or fewer, one by 25, and one by 35. Ohio State went 4-1 with only one of their four wins being by less than 10 points. The remaining three fell between 25-30 points. For the remainder of teams, the numbers between the two teams are fairly comparable. So we give a slight edge based on quality of wins to Ohio State, which leads us to…

2. Better quality losses

I know, I hate this “category” too, but there’s a case to be made, and the CFP Committee has said that it is a factor that they look at in earlier rankings. Ohio State’s sole loss was to the eventual conference champions on a last second field goal from 42 yards out, which in college is less than automatic. Oklahoma’s sole loss, on the other hand, was against a middle-of-the-pack Longhorns team in a game that they should have easily won. In fact, the win over Oklahoma probably saved Charlie Strong’s job, or at least the endless calls for his head from the burnt orange faithful.  So not only did the Buckeyes win better, but they lost better, which brings us to our final point:

3. More consistent play

From top to bottom, the Buckeyes outplayed their opponents. If you look at the opponents’ rank versus the margin of victory of the game, the Ohio State table looks a lot more similar to what you would see from a quality team that plays consistently. A few high ranked blowouts, but then a gradual slope of margin of victory increasing as team caliber decreases. On the other hand, Oklahoma jumps around like the October 2008 stock market. Here are the numbers:

So there it is, the case for the Buckeyes. The two teams have incredibly similar resumes on the surface, but as you look at it a bit more, Ohio State seems to be the correct choice. That being said, the unreasonable “conference champion” tag seems to have more value to the playoff committee, so I fully expect that Oklahoma will be the #4 in this year’s College Football Playoff.