NCAA Football Championship Week: Games that will/won’t suck

Rivalry week is done. There were some goodies, and some not so goodies.

Let’s see how I did last week:

Suck:

Clemson 37, South Carolina 32. Not suck but not as close as the final score leads you to believe

South Florida 44, UCF 3. Definitely suck

Memphis 63, SMU 0. Woof. Major suck

Clemson trying their best to lay an egg but even with that, South Carolina couldn’t figure out how to win. We will call it 2.5 out of 3.

Not Suck:

Washington 45, Washington State 10. Suck, but upset suck

UNC 45, NC State 34. Not suck. 

Ohio State 42, Michigan 13. Total let down suck. Even khakis can’t save Michigan it seems.

Not my best work.

Okay, let’s put this behind us and move on to conference championship week, or as they call it in the Big XII, the last week of the season.

Suck

1 & 2) South Alabama vs Appalachian State  and Georgia Southern vs Georgia State

S     U     N      B     E     L     T     !

U

N

B

E

L

T

!

 

You thought that since I had left out the Sun Belt games in previous weeks, that I would leave it out this week? Well, you’re wrong. The Sun Belt is the only game in town this week besides the Big XII, try and stop them!  But in case you needed empirical evidence for justification to avoid the Sun Belt games this weekend, here you go.  South Alabama expected to lose by 32 according to the computer model, and only a 16% chance of the upset. In the other game, give the edge to Georgia Southern by 25, with an 82% chance of victory.

3) Alabama vs Florida

S-E-C! S-E-C! S-E-C! but not really this year. As usual, the West dominates the East. Florida has underperformed all year coming out flat in games where they should win big (with the exception of spanking New Mexico State).  Don’t expect any surprises here, Bama rolls the Gators and walks themselves into the Playoffs. 70% chance of Bama victory, 7 point win according to the points model.

Not suck 

Championship week will not let us down, I hope.

1) Houston vs Temple

For the glory of the American conference, two teams that were in other conferences in 2013 will face off. Is that great? In Temple’s case, you have to say it feels good to be back on top of a conference that kicked them out for football mediocrity (and that’s being nice) ten years ago. This is the first matchup between the two this year. Last year Houston won 31-10 at home. This year the models say the Cougars once again have the edge, with about a 60% chance of victory and a 2.8 point margin.

2) USC vs Stanford

Despite the fact that USC has 4 losses, 3 in conference, this one is predicted to be close in the models. Earlier this season Stanford took home a 10 point victory, and once again they’re expected to win, but this time only by around 2.6 points. USC only with a 30% chance of upset.

3) Clemson vs North Carolina

This one is interesting because I feel like this could easily be the game of the week, and the computer models are so split on it. On one hand, the win model finds that Clemson is undefeated against a somewhat impressive schedule. On the other, the points model sees the Tigers barely squeaking by the Gamecocks last week and thinks “Hmm, maybe not.” Win model says 80% chance of Clemson victory, the highest of any Championship Week game. The points model? A 1.5 point victory for the Tigers. Given that, I’d probably tune in.

Fan of the Big XII or the Sun Belt? Here are the full week 14 predictions:

Date Home Visitor Home team win chance Home team MoV Models agree?
12/4/2015 South Alabama Appalachian St 16.81% -31.78 Decisive
12/4/2015 Kansas State West Virginia 25.91% -12.69 Decisive
12/4/2015 LA-Lafayette Troy 56.29% -9.78 Toss up
12/5/2015 Iowa Michigan State 61.86% -5.47 Toss up
12/5/2015 USC Stanford 31.70% -2.66 Decisive
12/5/2015 UL Monroe New Mexico St 19.13% -1.95 Decisive
12/5/2015 Clemson North Carolina 79.94% 1.57 Decisive
12/5/2015 Houston Temple 59.11% 2.83 Decisive
12/5/2015 Arkansas State Texas State 89.70% 6.61 Decisive
12/5/2015 Air Force San Diego State 46.08% 8.07 Toss up
12/5/2015 Alabama Florida 69.18% 9.21 Decisive
12/5/2015 W Kentucky Southern Miss 68.13% 11.36 Decisive
12/4/2015 Baylor Texas 86.00% 16.82 Decisive
12/5/2015 Ga Southern Appalachian St 40.65% -3.64 Decisive