Week 13 (Rivalry week!) NCAA Football Predictions: Games that will/won’t suck

Week 12 was certainly an interesting one. After I made fun of the SEC for scheduling FCS opponents this late in the season, South Carolina went out and lost to The Citadel. Welp.

Let’s see how I did last week:

Suck:

Florida 20, FAU 13 (OT). Definitely not suck. Florida continues to play down to opponents.

Louisiana Tech 17, UTEP 15. Definitely not suck

UConn 20, Houston 17. Definitely not suck

The computers (and by extension, me) could not have been more wrong. These three games ended up being three excellent games, with almost all three being upsets. I WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN LIKE THIS AGAIN, LOYAL READER.

Not Suck:

South Florida 65, Cincinnati 27 Suck *panic intensifies*

UTSA 34, Rice 24. Not suck. *deep sigh of relief*

Northwestern 13, Wisconsin 7. Definitely not suck! 

I told you I would never let you down!

Okay, so let’s take a look at week 13, shall we?

Suck

1) South Carolina vs Clemson

After coming off such an impressive showlast week, this one gets bumped into the top 3 worst games of the week. South Carolina, in short, sucks. Clemson, in short, does not suck. This effectively gives the Tigers their second bye week in a row after playing Wake Forest this week. The Gamecocks have only a 2% chance of victory, with the points model saying Clemson by 24.

2)  UCF vs USF

This is the tale of two U_Fs.  Unlike their F_U brothers who have decided to both suck, the U_Fs have taken two paths. UCF has chosen to be exceptionally bad. USF has chosen to be competitive, hitting 44 in the most recent AMSTS Computer Rankings. UCF has a 1.73% chance of winning and is expected to lose by 25.8 points. In short, don’t expect UCF to win it’s first football game of the year.

3) Memphis vs SMU

The curbstomping of the week. SMU is 2-9 with nothing impressive under their belt. On the other hand, Memphis has a win against Ole Miss. Can’t argue with that logic. 5% chance of upset for SMU, but likely a 26.6 point win by the Tigers.

Not suck 

Boy oh boy do we have some good ones this rivalry week:

1) Washington vs Washington State

This Pac 12 matchup is a lot more lopsided if you look at the win rankings. The Huskies have only a 30% chance of victory. The points model disagrees and says that this one is actually won by the Huskies, by .67 points.

2) North Carolina vs NC State

Another “this one looks better on paper than in reality” matchup, but the methods are once again split. The win method says 21% chance of NC State victory, while the points method says NC State wins by about a third of a point. Could NC State put a dash on UNC’s playoff ambitions?

3) Michigan vs Ohio State

Wow, for the first time ever we have 3 games that involve no mid majors. And Michigan vs Ohio State! After about 10 years of lopsided matchups, the Khaki Mafia has gotten the Wolverines back in the hunt. Hosting Ohio State next week, they remain slight underdogs in the eyes of the computers, with only a 43% chance of victory, and an expected loss just shy of a point.

Fan of another school? Here are the full week 13 predictions: