Week 13 (Rivalry week!) NCAA Football Predictions: Games that will/won't suck

November 25, 2015  — FordRChris

Week 12 was certainly an interesting one. After I made fun of the SEC for scheduling FCS opponents this late in the season, South Carolina went out and lost to The Citadel. Welp. Let's see how I did last week: Suck: Florida 20, FAU 13 (OT). Definitely not suck. Florida continues to play down to opponents. Louisiana Tech 17, UTEP 15. Definitely not suck UConn 20, Houston 17. Definitely not suck The computers (and by extension, me) could not have been more wrong. These three games ended up being three excellent games, with almost all three being upsets. I WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN LIKE THIS AGAIN, LOYAL READER. Not Suck: South Florida 65, Cincinnati 27 Suck *panic intensifies* UTSA 34, Rice 24. Not suck. *deep sigh of relief* Northwestern 13, Wisconsin 7. Definitely not suck!  I told you I would never let you down! Okay, so let's take a look at week 13, shall we? Suck 1) South Carolina vs Clemson

After coming off such an impressive showlast week, this one gets bumped into the top 3 worst games of the week. South Carolina, in short, sucks. Clemson, in short, does not suck. This effectively gives the Tigers their second bye week in a row after playing Wake Forest this week. The Gamecocks have only a 2% chance of victory, with the points model saying Clemson by 24.

2)  UCF vs USF

This is the tale of two U_Fs.  Unlike their F_U brothers who have decided to both suck, the U_Fs have taken two paths. UCF has chosen to be exceptionally bad. USF has chosen to be competitive, hitting 44 in the most recent AMSTS Computer Rankings. UCF has a 1.73% chance of winning and is expected to lose by 25.8 points. In short, don't expect UCF to win it's first football game of the year.

3) Memphis vs SMU

The curbstomping of the week. SMU is 2-9 with nothing impressive under their belt. On the other hand, Memphis has a win against Ole Miss. Can't argue with that logic. 5% chance of upset for SMU, but likely a 26.6 point win by the Tigers.

Not suck  Boy oh boy do we have some good ones this rivalry week: 1) Washington vs Washington State

This Pac 12 matchup is a lot more lopsided if you look at the win rankings. The Huskies have only a 30% chance of victory. The points model disagrees and says that this one is actually won by the Huskies, by .67 points.

2) North Carolina vs NC State

Another "this one looks better on paper than in reality" matchup, but the methods are once again split. The win method says 21% chance of NC State victory, while the points method says NC State wins by about a third of a point. Could NC State put a dash on UNC's playoff ambitions?

3) Michigan vs Ohio State

Wow, for the first time ever we have 3 games that involve no mid majors. And Michigan vs Ohio State! After about 10 years of lopsided matchups, the Khaki Mafia has gotten the Wolverines back in the hunt. Hosting Ohio State next week, they remain slight underdogs in the eyes of the computers, with only a 43% chance of victory, and an expected loss just shy of a point.

Fan of another school? Here are the full week 13 predictions:
Date Home Visitor Home team win chance Home team MoV Models agree?
11/27/2015 Memphis SMU 94.95% 26.60 Decisive
11/28/2015 Ga Southern South Alabama 71.93% 24.78 Decisive
11/27/2015 West Virginia Iowa State 79.56% 22.09 Decisive
11/26/2015 Cent Michigan E Michigan 95.23% 21.60 Decisive
11/27/2015 Appalachian St LA-Lafayette 87.14% 21.00 Decisive
11/27/2015 Utah Colorado 89.20% 18.96 Decisive
11/27/2015 Temple UConn 80.02% 13.41 Decisive
11/27/2015 Tennessee Vanderbilt 77.67% 10.91 Decisive
11/27/2015 Michigan State Penn State 80.34% 10.41 Decisive
11/28/2015 Hawaii UL Monroe 64.78% 10.12 Decisive
11/26/2015 Akron Kent State 70.95% 9.65 Decisive
11/26/2015 Buffalo UMass 79.14% 9.20 Decisive
11/27/2015 LA Tech Southern Miss 53.31% 8.56 Decisive
11/27/2015 Oregon Oregon State 93.23% 7.14 Decisive
11/24/2015 N Illinois Ohio 58.54% 7.07 Decisive
11/27/2015 W Kentucky Marshall 60.01% 6.93 Decisive
11/27/2015 Arkansas Missouri 69.12% 6.55 Decisive
11/27/2015 Cal Arizona State 52.01% 5.94 Decisive
11/26/2015 Toledo W Michigan 80.95% 5.82 Decisive
11/27/2015 San Diego State Nevada 69.88% 5.41 Decisive
11/27/2015 USC UCLA 47.82% 4.27 Toss up
11/26/2015 Pitt Miami (FL) 64.17% 4.13 Decisive
11/28/2015 Rice Charlotte 66.83% 3.09 Decisive
11/27/2015 LSU Texas A&M 55.92% 2.45 Decisive
11/27/2015 Syracuse Boston College 59.80% 2.34 Decisive
11/26/2015 Houston Navy 36.93% 0.92 Toss up
11/26/2015 Washington Washington St 29.42% 0.67 Toss up
11/27/2015 NC State North Carolina 21.12% 0.31 Toss up
11/27/2015 Michigan Ohio State 43.53% -0.84 Decisive
11/28/2015 Old Dominion FAU 69.81% -0.98 Toss up
11/27/2015 Stanford Notre Dame 30.40% -1.14 Decisive
11/27/2015 Wake Forest Duke 27.06% -1.40 Decisive
11/27/2015 Georgia Tech Georgia 13.99% -1.70 Decisive
11/27/2015 Florida Florida State 68.06% -1.93 Toss up
11/27/2015 Kentucky Louisville 36.04% -2.22 Decisive
11/26/2015 Nebraska Iowa 6.62% -2.68 Decisive
11/26/2015 Texas Texas Tech 37.72% -2.74 Decisive
11/27/2015 East Carolina Cincinnati 38.98% -2.84 Decisive
11/27/2015 Rutgers Maryland 54.87% -3.32 Toss up
11/27/2015 New Mexico St Arkansas State 14.99% -5.38 Decisive
11/28/2015 Idaho Texas State 50.95% -5.46 Toss up
11/27/2015 North Texas UTEP 23.42% -5.77 Decisive
11/27/2015 Oklahoma State Oklahoma 45.59% -5.82 Decisive
11/28/2015 Wyoming UNLV 22.48% -6.73 Decisive
11/27/2015 Purdue Indiana 25.34% -8.18 Decisive
11/27/2015 Miss St Ole Miss 44.08% -8.39 Decisive
11/27/2015 Illinois Northwestern 14.07% -8.52 Decisive
11/27/2015 Minnesota Wisconsin 32.42% -8.88 Decisive
11/28/2015 Utah State BYU 25.16% -9.06 Decisive
11/27/2015 San Jose State Boise State 32.60% -9.13 Decisive
11/27/2015 TCU Baylor 39.00% -10.67 Decisive
11/28/2015 Fresno State Colorado State 29.88% -12.09 Decisive
11/27/2015 New Mexico Air Force 25.65% -12.94 Decisive
11/27/2015 Virginia Virginia Tech 46.59% -14.38 Decisive
11/26/2015 Tulane Tulsa 22.49% -14.61 Decisive
11/24/2015 Ball State Bowling Green 8.48% -19.33 Decisive
11/27/2015 Auburn Alabama 12.21% -22.82 Decisive
11/26/2015 Georgia State Troy 54.47% -22.96 Toss up
11/27/2015 Kansas Kansas State 5.96% -23.23 Decisive
11/27/2015 South Carolina Clemson 2.02% -23.76 Decisive
11/28/2015 UTSA Mid Tennessee 22.84% -24.61 Decisive
11/26/2015 UCF USF 1.73% -25.80 Decisive
 

← All Posts