Week 9 NCAA Football: Games that will and won’t suck

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by

Chris Ford

Hi and welcome back to “Games that will/won’t suck.”  As always, we’ll start with how we did last week, and by last week, I mean Week 7 because I am terrible at life and was too busy enjoying delicious American food last week.

 

Suck:

Western Kentucky 55, North Texas 28. Result: Suck

Houston 42, Tulane 7. Result: Suck

Texas Tech 30, Kansas 20. Result: Surprisingly not Suck.

 

Not Suck:

New Mexico 28, Hawaii 27. Result: Not Suck at all!

Miami (FL) 30, Virginia Tech 20. Result: Not suck

Washington State 52, Oregon State 31. Result: Suck

 

I continue to go 2-1 in both Suck and Not Suck.  Not the greatest.

 

Anyway, let’s put that behind us and look forward to Week 9.

First, as always, the suck:

1) Kansas vs Oklahoma

We’ve talked about Kansas too much in this space.  Let’s just leave it at this. Kansas is historically bad.  The points model knows this, seeing them losing by 36 points to the Sooners. The win model is somewhat more optimistic, giving them a 1.67% chance of victory.

2) Auburn vs Ole Miss

Wow.  Who would’ve thought that last year, a game like this would make the list?  The Tigers aren’t too impressive this year at 4-3, while Ole Miss seems to stomp everyone (except Memphis and Florida, whom both stomped Ole Miss).  For this reason, the points method is high on the Rebels, having them win by 25.  The win method sees it a lot tighter, giving Ole Miss only 73% chance of winning.

3) Memphis vs Tulane

After stomping said Ole Miss team, the points method loves the Tigers. 32 point win in the forecast against the Green Wave, with only 3.2% chance of Tulane staging the upset.

 

Enough suck, how about the not sucks?

 

1) Penn State vs Illinois

There is some heavy disagreement between the models here.  The wins method gives the Nittany Lions a 70% chance of winning, while the points method gives the Illini a 2.7 point edge, despite PSU being 6-2 compared to Illinois’ 4-3 record.

2) Boston College vs Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech has another spin around the “not suck” game of the week, surely hoping for more success than in Week 7. BC, 3-4 hosts the 3-5 Hokies, who have lost two straight after a 4 OT nailbiter against Duke in Week 8. Doesn’t seem to be getting much better according to the points model, with a .45 point edge to the Eagles.  Wins model gives it to the Hokies with a 59.5% chance of victory.

3) Arizona State vs Oregon

Who would’ve thought at the beginning of the year that this would be two teams fighting for a berth in the Holiday Bowl, instead of a playoff game? Certainly not Oregon fans, who have been on suicide watch for almost a full month now. More bad news for the Ducks fans as the points method says this is a 1.6 point ASU victory, and the wins method agrees, 53% chance for the Sun Devils.

And here’s the rest of your Week 9 games:

 

 

DateHomeVisitorHome team win chanceHome team MoVModels agree?
10/30/2015KansasOklahoma1.67%-36.13Decisive
10/30/2015AuburnOle Miss26.92%-25.44Decisive
10/31/2015MinnesotaMichigan26.06%-21.10Decisive
10/29/2015Miami (OH)Buffalo23.44%-18.47Decisive
10/30/2015Washington StStanford24.92%-17.34Decisive
10/30/2015VirginiaGeorgia Tech36.47%-17.27Decisive
10/30/2015CharlotteMarshall9.31%-15.79Decisive
10/30/2015KentuckyTennessee49.91%-15.56Decisive
10/31/2015North TexasUTSA15.12%-15.52Decisive
10/30/2015RiceLA Tech41.00%-14.40Decisive
10/30/2015UNLVBoise State15.65%-14.03Decisive
10/30/2015Old DominionW Kentucky15.80%-13.63Decisive
10/29/2015E MichiganW Michigan6.79%-13.12Decisive
10/31/2015FAUFIU30.49%-10.78Decisive
10/31/2015HawaiiAir Force26.45%-9.62Decisive
10/30/2015PurdueNebraska21.78%-9.26Decisive
10/29/2015PittNorth Carolina62.34%-8.91Toss up
10/30/2015Texas TechOklahoma State20.16%-8.14Decisive
10/30/2015NC StateClemson8.09%-8.04Decisive
10/30/2015TempleNotre Dame53.16%-7.96Toss up
10/30/2015CalUSC56.61%-7.89Toss up
10/30/2015SMUTulsa13.61%-7.75Decisive
10/30/2015UConnEast Carolina23.64%-7.49Decisive
10/30/2015AkronCent Michigan40.14%-7.43Decisive
10/30/2015Iowa StateTexas22.02%-7.13Decisive
10/29/2015TCUWest Virginia83.35%-6.52Toss up
10/30/2015Wake ForestLouisville31.20%-6.13Decisive
10/31/2015GeorgiaFlorida22.47%-5.66Decisive
10/30/2015WashingtonArizona44.48%-3.59Decisive
10/30/2015Penn StateIllinois70.64%-2.71Toss up
10/30/2015Boston CollegeVirginia Tech40.56%0.45Toss up
10/29/2015Arizona StateOregon53.60%1.66Decisive
10/31/2015Colorado StateSan Diego State32.21%3.84Toss up
10/30/2015LA-LafayetteUL Monroe63.52%4.50Decisive
10/31/2015NavyUSF75.17%4.59Decisive
10/31/2015New Mexico StIdaho11.99%5.56Toss up
10/30/2015Ball StateUMass39.59%6.83Toss up
10/30/2015IowaMaryland94.95%7.85Decisive
10/30/2015WisconsinRutgers74.24%9.92Decisive
10/30/2015Florida StateSyracuse80.02%10.09Decisive
10/30/2015UCLAColorado83.24%10.83Decisive
10/31/2015Arkansas StateGeorgia State83.91%10.88Decisive
10/30/2015Utah StateWyoming91.49%11.19Decisive
10/30/2015DukeMiami (FL)68.44%11.51Decisive
10/30/2015HoustonVanderbilt84.44%11.83Decisive
10/30/2015Southern MissUTEP74.05%12.58Decisive
10/30/2015Appalachian StTroy92.16%15.33Decisive
10/30/2015Texas A&MSouth Carolina78.22%16.45Decisive
10/29/2015Ga SouthernTexas State77.60%16.87Decisive
10/30/2015CincinnatiUCF96.88%18.61Decisive
10/30/2015UtahOregon State92.74%21.10Decisive
10/30/2015MemphisTulane96.00%32.23Decisive
10/30/2015ArkansasUT Martin96.79%36.90Decisive