Week 9 NCAA Football: Games that will and won’t suck

October 28, 2015  — FordRChris

Hi and welcome back to "Games that will/won't suck."  As always, we'll start with how we did last week, and by last week, I mean Week 7 because I am terrible at life and was too busy enjoying delicious American food last week.   Suck: Western Kentucky 55, North Texas 28. Result: Suck Houston 42, Tulane 7. Result: Suck Texas Tech 30, Kansas 20. Result: Surprisingly not Suck.   Not Suck: New Mexico 28, Hawaii 27. Result: Not Suck at all! Miami (FL) 30, Virginia Tech 20. Result: Not suck Washington State 52, Oregon State 31. Result: Suck   I continue to go 2-1 in both Suck and Not Suck.  Not the greatest.   Anyway, let's put that behind us and look forward to Week 9. First, as always, the suck: 1) Kansas vs Oklahoma

We've talked about Kansas too much in this space.  Let's just leave it at this. Kansas is historically bad.  The points model knows this, seeing them losing by 36 points to the Sooners. The win model is somewhat more optimistic, giving them a 1.67% chance of victory.

2) Auburn vs Ole Miss

Wow.  Who would've thought that last year, a game like this would make the list?  The Tigers aren't too impressive this year at 4-3, while Ole Miss seems to stomp everyone (except Memphis and Florida, whom both stomped Ole Miss).  For this reason, the points method is high on the Rebels, having them win by 25.  The win method sees it a lot tighter, giving Ole Miss only 73% chance of winning.

3) Memphis vs Tulane

After stomping said Ole Miss team, the points method loves the Tigers. 32 point win in the forecast against the Green Wave, with only 3.2% chance of Tulane staging the upset.

  Enough suck, how about the not sucks?   1) Penn State vs Illinois

There is some heavy disagreement between the models here.  The wins method gives the Nittany Lions a 70% chance of winning, while the points method gives the Illini a 2.7 point edge, despite PSU being 6-2 compared to Illinois' 4-3 record.

2) Boston College vs Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech has another spin around the "not suck" game of the week, surely hoping for more success than in Week 7. BC, 3-4 hosts the 3-5 Hokies, who have lost two straight after a 4 OT nailbiter against Duke in Week 8. Doesn't seem to be getting much better according to the points model, with a .45 point edge to the Eagles.  Wins model gives it to the Hokies with a 59.5% chance of victory.

3) Arizona State vs Oregon

Who would've thought at the beginning of the year that this would be two teams fighting for a berth in the Holiday Bowl, instead of a playoff game? Certainly not Oregon fans, who have been on suicide watch for almost a full month now. More bad news for the Ducks fans as the points method says this is a 1.6 point ASU victory, and the wins method agrees, 53% chance for the Sun Devils.

And here's the rest of your Week 9 games:    
Date Home Visitor Home team win chance Home team MoV Models agree?
10/30/2015 Kansas Oklahoma 1.67% -36.13 Decisive
10/30/2015 Auburn Ole Miss 26.92% -25.44 Decisive
10/31/2015 Minnesota Michigan 26.06% -21.10 Decisive
10/29/2015 Miami (OH) Buffalo 23.44% -18.47 Decisive
10/30/2015 Washington St Stanford 24.92% -17.34 Decisive
10/30/2015 Virginia Georgia Tech 36.47% -17.27 Decisive
10/30/2015 Charlotte Marshall 9.31% -15.79 Decisive
10/30/2015 Kentucky Tennessee 49.91% -15.56 Decisive
10/31/2015 North Texas UTSA 15.12% -15.52 Decisive
10/30/2015 Rice LA Tech 41.00% -14.40 Decisive
10/30/2015 UNLV Boise State 15.65% -14.03 Decisive
10/30/2015 Old Dominion W Kentucky 15.80% -13.63 Decisive
10/29/2015 E Michigan W Michigan 6.79% -13.12 Decisive
10/31/2015 FAU FIU 30.49% -10.78 Decisive
10/31/2015 Hawaii Air Force 26.45% -9.62 Decisive
10/30/2015 Purdue Nebraska 21.78% -9.26 Decisive
10/29/2015 Pitt North Carolina 62.34% -8.91 Toss up
10/30/2015 Texas Tech Oklahoma State 20.16% -8.14 Decisive
10/30/2015 NC State Clemson 8.09% -8.04 Decisive
10/30/2015 Temple Notre Dame 53.16% -7.96 Toss up
10/30/2015 Cal USC 56.61% -7.89 Toss up
10/30/2015 SMU Tulsa 13.61% -7.75 Decisive
10/30/2015 UConn East Carolina 23.64% -7.49 Decisive
10/30/2015 Akron Cent Michigan 40.14% -7.43 Decisive
10/30/2015 Iowa State Texas 22.02% -7.13 Decisive
10/29/2015 TCU West Virginia 83.35% -6.52 Toss up
10/30/2015 Wake Forest Louisville 31.20% -6.13 Decisive
10/31/2015 Georgia Florida 22.47% -5.66 Decisive
10/30/2015 Washington Arizona 44.48% -3.59 Decisive
10/30/2015 Penn State Illinois 70.64% -2.71 Toss up
10/30/2015 Boston College Virginia Tech 40.56% 0.45 Toss up
10/29/2015 Arizona State Oregon 53.60% 1.66 Decisive
10/31/2015 Colorado State San Diego State 32.21% 3.84 Toss up
10/30/2015 LA-Lafayette UL Monroe 63.52% 4.50 Decisive
10/31/2015 Navy USF 75.17% 4.59 Decisive
10/31/2015 New Mexico St Idaho 11.99% 5.56 Toss up
10/30/2015 Ball State UMass 39.59% 6.83 Toss up
10/30/2015 Iowa Maryland 94.95% 7.85 Decisive
10/30/2015 Wisconsin Rutgers 74.24% 9.92 Decisive
10/30/2015 Florida State Syracuse 80.02% 10.09 Decisive
10/30/2015 UCLA Colorado 83.24% 10.83 Decisive
10/31/2015 Arkansas State Georgia State 83.91% 10.88 Decisive
10/30/2015 Utah State Wyoming 91.49% 11.19 Decisive
10/30/2015 Duke Miami (FL) 68.44% 11.51 Decisive
10/30/2015 Houston Vanderbilt 84.44% 11.83 Decisive
10/30/2015 Southern Miss UTEP 74.05% 12.58 Decisive
10/30/2015 Appalachian St Troy 92.16% 15.33 Decisive
10/30/2015 Texas A&M South Carolina 78.22% 16.45 Decisive
10/29/2015 Ga Southern Texas State 77.60% 16.87 Decisive
10/30/2015 Cincinnati UCF 96.88% 18.61 Decisive
10/30/2015 Utah Oregon State 92.74% 21.10 Decisive
10/30/2015 Memphis Tulane 96.00% 32.23 Decisive
10/30/2015 Arkansas UT Martin 96.79% 36.90 Decisive

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