NCAA Football Week 10, Games that will/won't suck

November 7, 2015  — FordRChris

A little delayed this week due to me being on vacation, but let's review how I did last week: Suck: Oklahoma 62, Kansas 7. Definitely suck. Ole Miss 27, Auburn 19. Not suck. Memphis 41, Tulane 13. Definitely suck.   Not Suck: Penn State 39, Illinois 0. Suck Virginia Tech 26, Boston College 10. Suck too, ugh. Oregon 61, Arizona State 55, after 3 OT. So much not suck we'll look the other way on the first two sucking, right guys, right?      So now for Week 10: Suck 1) Louisiana Tech vs North Texas 

North Texas, despite a fluke win last week (they had a fumble returned for a TD and a blocked PAT returned for 2 points to tie the game late), still sucks.  And sucks is an understatement. I've talked about them enough. La Tech by 29 points in the points method, 92% chance of victory in the win method.

2) Oklahoma vs Iowa State

OU back in the suck game list for the second straight week, after getting a scheduling gift with back to back bye weeks against the Jayhawks and now the Cyclones. OU predicted by 23 in the points model, 82.5% chance of winning via the win method.

3) Michigan vs Rutgers

There have been surprisingly few Big Ten games that have made the suck list, but this one was circled on the schedule.  Rutgers only managed to beat Kansas by 13, then eked out an upset against IU to account for their two FBS wins this year. Michigan almost beat Michigan State, we all saw the kids crying highlights. Michigan by 22.5, 85% chance of victory.

Not suck 1) Texas State vs New Mexico State

You have to love it when you get the opportunity to watch a 2-5 Sun Belt team take on a 1-7 Sun Belt team. This game will certainly suck, but it will be a close kind of suck that makes you appreciate the fundamentals. Models say Texas State by 1.45, 72% chance of victory, but who the hell cares, you won't be able to find this one on TV anyway.

2) Oklahoma State vs TCU

That last line sets up a Fox Sports One joke but I will let that through, as the Big XII gets itself its first "not suck" game in a while. TCU the slight favorites with the points model giving them .44 points, and the win model giving them a 52.2% chance of victory. By the way, I would probably take the over in this one. I can't remember any time that TCU and Oklahoma State have played defense against, well, anyone.

3) Washington State vs Arizona State

Meanwhile, the Pac 12 seems to have an interesting game week in and week out, and this week is no exception. Early reports out of Pullman suggest that there will be some snow in the area, which may lead to the desert dwelling Sun Devils being a little out of their element, but the points model says this is one of the closest games of the year, with WSU edging out ASU by .06 points. The win model only gives the Cougars a .76% advantage over ASU as well. This seems like a good reason to stay up late tonight.

  And of course, for the rest of us, here is the full week 10 predictions:
Date Home Visitor Home team win chance Home team MoV Models agree?
11/6/2015 SMU Temple 2.48% -20.29 Decisive
11/7/2015 Colorado Stanford 7.84% -16.02 Decisive
11/7/2015 Tulane UConn 39.45% -13.88 Decisive
11/5/2015 Kansas State Baylor 11.70% -13.57 Decisive
11/7/2015 Maryland Wisconsin 17.27% -13.28 Decisive
11/7/2015 Oregon State UCLA 10.65% -12.35 Decisive
11/7/2015 Boston College NC State 27.93% -11.47 Decisive
11/7/2015 Georgia State LA-Lafayette 32.68% -10.82 Decisive
11/7/2015 Pitt Notre Dame 22.58% -10.41 Decisive
11/6/2015 San Jose State BYU 13.55% -10.21 Decisive
11/5/2015 Missouri Miss St 19.36% -9.94 Decisive
11/5/2015 Kent State Buffalo 31.62% -9.84 Decisive
11/7/2015 Oregon Cal 44.41% -9.08 Decisive
11/7/2015 New Mexico Utah State 25.18% -9.03 Decisive
11/7/2015 Washington Utah 18.70% -8.57 Decisive
11/7/2015 Indiana Iowa 9.02% -8.52 Decisive
11/7/2015 Wyoming Colorado State 18.00% -7.60 Decisive
11/5/2015 Fresno State Nevada 30.92% -7.27 Decisive
11/7/2015 UMass Akron 29.34% -6.66 Decisive
11/6/2015 UTEP Rice 44.79% -6.01 Decisive
11/7/2015 UTSA Old Dominion 30.72% -5.60 Decisive
11/7/2015 East Carolina USF 49.20% -4.51 Decisive
11/7/2015 Nebraska Michigan State 5.22% -4.01 Decisive
11/7/2015 Miami (OH) E Michigan 59.30% -3.45 Toss up
11/7/2015 Purdue Illinois 27.42% -1.88 Decisive
11/7/2015 Oklahoma State TCU 47.78% -0.44 Decisive
11/7/2015 Washington St Arizona State 50.76% 0.06 Decisive
11/7/2015 Texas State New Mexico St 72.85% 1.45 Decisive
11/7/2015 North Carolina Duke 63.63% 1.74 Decisive
11/7/2015 South Alabama Idaho 59.84% 2.66 Decisive
11/7/2015 UNLV Hawaii 51.08% 3.37 Decisive
11/3/2015 Toledo N Illinois 71.60% 4.26 Decisive
11/7/2015 Louisville Syracuse 62.71% 4.26 Decisive
11/7/2015 Georgia Kentucky 60.39% 4.96 Decisive
11/5/2015 W Michigan Ball State 85.63% 5.01 Decisive
11/7/2015 Alabama LSU 32.22% 5.56 Toss up
11/7/2015 Memphis Navy 75.47% 6.14 Decisive
11/7/2015 Clemson Florida State 80.99% 6.97 Decisive
11/7/2015 Northwestern Penn State 52.50% 7.20 Decisive
11/7/2015 Houston Cincinnati 75.23% 8.03 Decisive
11/7/2015 Miami (FL) Virginia 67.55% 8.34 Decisive
11/7/2015 Mid Tennessee Marshall 17.58% 8.35 Toss up
11/7/2015 West Virginia Texas Tech 46.05% 9.44 Toss up
11/7/2015 Tulsa UCF 95.24% 9.86 Decisive
11/7/2015 USC Arizona 76.13% 12.31 Decisive
11/7/2015 Texas A&M Auburn 74.08% 12.89 Decisive
11/7/2015 Ole Miss Arkansas 79.73% 13.43 Decisive
11/7/2015 W Kentucky FAU 89.30% 14.71 Decisive
11/7/2015 Troy UL Monroe 61.10% 14.73 Decisive
11/7/2015 Ohio State Minnesota 90.11% 15.68 Decisive
11/7/2015 FIU Charlotte 60.07% 15.72 Decisive
11/5/2015 Appalachian St Arkansas State 56.88% 17.05 Decisive
11/7/2015 Tennessee South Carolina 68.56% 17.28 Decisive
11/7/2015 Air Force Army 88.41% 17.99 Decisive
11/7/2015 Florida Vanderbilt 91.86% 18.31 Decisive
11/7/2015 Texas Kansas 94.51% 19.07 Decisive
11/4/2015 Bowling Green Ohio 73.91% 22.25 Decisive
11/7/2015 Michigan Rutgers 85.43% 22.65 Decisive
11/7/2015 Oklahoma Iowa State 82.50% 22.80 Decisive
11/7/2015 LA Tech North Texas 92.46% 29.22 Decisive
10/30/2015 Arkansas UT Martin 96.83% 36.73 Decisive

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