NCAA Football Week 7 predictions!

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by

Chris Ford

So week 7 is upon us, and with it come the first predictions from the computer models. For those unfamiliar, two separate models are run which create sometimes varying predictions.  First, there is the “Win Model” which values when a team wins, not caring if they win by 15 or 50.  It ranks the teams Elo-Chess style, and then uses that ranking to predict the likelihood of success for a team against another team.

Alternatively, there is the points model, which uses a modified Elo-Chess based upon margin of victory. Sometimes the two methods may disagree, which is what the “Models agree?” column denotes.

Enough explaining, let’s get to Week 7, shall we?   The game of the week seems to be Oregon vs Washington, but both models agree that there is very little chance of a UW win, with the Win Model putting the odds at 2.7% and the Points Model predicting an 11 point defeat.

Looking for a close game instead?  Missouri at Georgia may be your best bet, with one model giving a slight edge to the Dawgs, the other thinking the Tigers pull off a close one.  One thing to note about the Points Model, however, is that it doesn’t account for a home team.  Traditionally, it is assumed that a home team “gets” three points.  However, given that my rankings do not subtract three points from a home team winning, I tend to believe that this advantage may already be factored in, but I am keeping an eye on it throughout the season.

As for the best betting opportunity, I am tempted to go against my alma mater (as I will be at the game, it is sure to be a blowout) and select Nebraska as the lock of the week, I think the real choice is Baylor -20 at Kansas State.  Baylor has shown the ability to hang points, and with the typically conservative Points Model predicting Baylor to win by 29, I would not be surprised to see a 40 point margin for the Bears this Saturday.

Enough commentary, here’s the rest of Week 7!

DateVisitorHomeVegas lineHome team win chanceHome team MoVModels agree?Spread team pickDifference over spread
10/10/2013ArizonaSouthern Cal4.554.20%-5.89Toss upArizona-10.39
10/10/2013San Diego StateAir Force-361.23%1.07DecisiveAir Force4.07
10/10/2013RutgersLouisville1787.33%16.91DecisiveRutgers-0.09
10/11/2013TempleCincinnati21.599.72%10.63DecisiveTemple-10.87
10/12/2013AlabamaKentucky-270.21%-14.73DecisiveKentucky12.27
10/12/2013BaylorKansas State-201.35%-28.93DecisiveBaylor-8.93
10/12/2013OklahomaTexas-142.14%-10.31DecisiveTexas3.69
10/12/2013OregonWashington-142.74%-11.04DecisiveWashington2.96
10/12/2013StanfordUtah-83.89%-4.57DecisiveUtah3.43
10/12/2013NebraskaPurdue-145.67%-24.65DecisiveNebraska-10.65
10/12/2013East CarolinaTulane-109.83%-7.76DecisiveTulane2.24
10/12/2013TroyGeorgia State-1910.43%-21.64DecisiveTroy-2.64
10/12/2013South CarolinaArkansas-6.511.17%-6.93DecisiveSouth Carolina-0.43
10/12/2013Texas A+MMississippi-711.64%-8.54DecisiveTexas A+M-1.54
10/12/2013MichiganPenn State-311.87%-0.88DecisivePenn State2.12
10/12/2013MarshallFlorida Atlantic-1312.80%-14.02DecisiveMarshall-1.02
10/12/2013BuffaloWestern Michigan-1018.37%-17.17DecisiveBuffalo-7.17
10/12/2013Boise StateUtah State-728.41%1.98Toss upUtah State8.98
10/12/2013RiceTexas-San Antonio-3.530.36%-4.44DecisiveRice-0.94
10/12/2013TulsaUTEP-1136.96%-1.00DecisiveUTEP10.00
10/12/2013FloridaLouisiana State749.63%4.17Toss upFlorida-2.83
10/12/2013MissouriGeorgia1050.04%-2.41Toss upMissouri-12.41
10/12/2013Oregon StateWashington State2.550.35%3.94DecisiveWashington State1.44
10/12/2013NavyDuke2.552.62%-1.46Toss upNavy-3.96
10/12/2013PittsburghVirginia Tech9.563.23%2.41DecisivePittsburgh-7.09
10/12/2013Georgia TechBrigham Young6.563.30%-2.15Toss upGeorgia Tech-8.65
10/12/2013U-A-BFlorida Intl-763.60%-14.81Toss upU-A-B-7.81
10/12/2013NorthwesternWisconsin1071.42%7.96DecisiveNorthwestern-2.04
10/12/2013SyracuseNo Carolina State4.572.93%-4.96Toss upSyracuse-9.46
10/12/2013IndianaMichigan State9.574.04%-7.48Toss upIndiana-16.98
10/12/2013Bowling GreenMississippi State1076.34%3.86DecisiveBowling Green-6.14
10/12/2013VirginiaMaryland7.578.79%2.53DecisiveVirginia-4.97
10/12/2013San Jose StateColorado State3.579.31%0.14DecisiveSan Jose State-3.36
10/12/2013Middle TennesseeNorth Texas6.580.34%6.23DecisiveMiddle Tennessee-0.27
10/12/2013UL-MonroeTexas State7.584.63%7.52DecisiveTexas State0.02
10/12/2013MemphisHouston10.591.23%7.67DecisiveMemphis-2.83
10/12/2013South FloridaConnecticut691.59%0.74DecisiveSouth Florida-5.26
10/12/2013Eastern MichiganArmy891.99%9.28DecisiveArmy1.28
10/12/2013Miami-OhioMassachusetts393.95%1.01DecisiveMiami-Ohio-1.99
10/12/2013Kent StateBall State1596.02%18.13DecisiveBall State3.13
10/12/2013New MexicoWyoming1596.13%7.87DecisiveNew Mexico-7.13
10/12/2013HawaiiNevada-Las Vegas9.596.35%4.78DecisiveHawaii-4.72
10/12/2013Boston CollegeClemson24.597.16%18.10DecisiveBoston College-6.40
10/12/2013Central MichiganOhio1797.62%23.91DecisiveOhio6.91
10/12/2013Iowa StateTexas Tech1697.96%19.02DecisiveTexas Tech3.02
10/12/2013ColoradoArizona State24.598.07%17.01DecisiveColorado-7.49
10/12/2013KansasTexas Christian2698.57%12.81DecisiveKansas-13.19
10/12/2013AkronNorthern Illinois21.598.94%10.79DecisiveAkron-10.71
10/12/2013CaliforniaU.C.L.A.24.598.98%24.03DecisiveCalifornia-0.47
10/12/2013IdahoArkansas State24.599.32%17.03DecisiveIdaho-7.47
10/12/2013Western CarolinaAuburnNone