NCAA Football Week 7 predictions!

October 10, 2013  — FordRChris

So week 7 is upon us, and with it come the first predictions from the computer models. For those unfamiliar, two separate models are run which create sometimes varying predictions.  First, there is the "Win Model" which values when a team wins, not caring if they win by 15 or 50.  It ranks the teams Elo-Chess style, and then uses that ranking to predict the likelihood of success for a team against another team. Alternatively, there is the points model, which uses a modified Elo-Chess based upon margin of victory. Sometimes the two methods may disagree, which is what the "Models agree?" column denotes. Enough explaining, let's get to Week 7, shall we?   The game of the week seems to be Oregon vs Washington, but both models agree that there is very little chance of a UW win, with the Win Model putting the odds at 2.7% and the Points Model predicting an 11 point defeat. Looking for a close game instead?  Missouri at Georgia may be your best bet, with one model giving a slight edge to the Dawgs, the other thinking the Tigers pull off a close one.  One thing to note about the Points Model, however, is that it doesn't account for a home team.  Traditionally, it is assumed that a home team "gets" three points.  However, given that my rankings do not subtract three points from a home team winning, I tend to believe that this advantage may already be factored in, but I am keeping an eye on it throughout the season. As for the best betting opportunity, I am tempted to go against my alma mater (as I will be at the game, it is sure to be a blowout) and select Nebraska as the lock of the week, I think the real choice is Baylor -20 at Kansas State.  Baylor has shown the ability to hang points, and with the typically conservative Points Model predicting Baylor to win by 29, I would not be surprised to see a 40 point margin for the Bears this Saturday. Enough commentary, here's the rest of Week 7!
Date Visitor Home Vegas line Home team win chance Home team MoV Models agree? Spread team pick Difference over spread
10/10/2013 Arizona Southern Cal 4.5 54.20% -5.89 Toss up Arizona -10.39
10/10/2013 San Diego State Air Force -3 61.23% 1.07 Decisive Air Force 4.07
10/10/2013 Rutgers Louisville 17 87.33% 16.91 Decisive Rutgers -0.09
10/11/2013 Temple Cincinnati 21.5 99.72% 10.63 Decisive Temple -10.87
10/12/2013 Alabama Kentucky -27 0.21% -14.73 Decisive Kentucky 12.27
10/12/2013 Baylor Kansas State -20 1.35% -28.93 Decisive Baylor -8.93
10/12/2013 Oklahoma Texas -14 2.14% -10.31 Decisive Texas 3.69
10/12/2013 Oregon Washington -14 2.74% -11.04 Decisive Washington 2.96
10/12/2013 Stanford Utah -8 3.89% -4.57 Decisive Utah 3.43
10/12/2013 Nebraska Purdue -14 5.67% -24.65 Decisive Nebraska -10.65
10/12/2013 East Carolina Tulane -10 9.83% -7.76 Decisive Tulane 2.24
10/12/2013 Troy Georgia State -19 10.43% -21.64 Decisive Troy -2.64
10/12/2013 South Carolina Arkansas -6.5 11.17% -6.93 Decisive South Carolina -0.43
10/12/2013 Texas A+M Mississippi -7 11.64% -8.54 Decisive Texas A+M -1.54
10/12/2013 Michigan Penn State -3 11.87% -0.88 Decisive Penn State 2.12
10/12/2013 Marshall Florida Atlantic -13 12.80% -14.02 Decisive Marshall -1.02
10/12/2013 Buffalo Western Michigan -10 18.37% -17.17 Decisive Buffalo -7.17
10/12/2013 Boise State Utah State -7 28.41% 1.98 Toss up Utah State 8.98
10/12/2013 Rice Texas-San Antonio -3.5 30.36% -4.44 Decisive Rice -0.94
10/12/2013 Tulsa UTEP -11 36.96% -1.00 Decisive UTEP 10.00
10/12/2013 Florida Louisiana State 7 49.63% 4.17 Toss up Florida -2.83
10/12/2013 Missouri Georgia 10 50.04% -2.41 Toss up Missouri -12.41
10/12/2013 Oregon State Washington State 2.5 50.35% 3.94 Decisive Washington State 1.44
10/12/2013 Navy Duke 2.5 52.62% -1.46 Toss up Navy -3.96
10/12/2013 Pittsburgh Virginia Tech 9.5 63.23% 2.41 Decisive Pittsburgh -7.09
10/12/2013 Georgia Tech Brigham Young 6.5 63.30% -2.15 Toss up Georgia Tech -8.65
10/12/2013 U-A-B Florida Intl -7 63.60% -14.81 Toss up U-A-B -7.81
10/12/2013 Northwestern Wisconsin 10 71.42% 7.96 Decisive Northwestern -2.04
10/12/2013 Syracuse No Carolina State 4.5 72.93% -4.96 Toss up Syracuse -9.46
10/12/2013 Indiana Michigan State 9.5 74.04% -7.48 Toss up Indiana -16.98
10/12/2013 Bowling Green Mississippi State 10 76.34% 3.86 Decisive Bowling Green -6.14
10/12/2013 Virginia Maryland 7.5 78.79% 2.53 Decisive Virginia -4.97
10/12/2013 San Jose State Colorado State 3.5 79.31% 0.14 Decisive San Jose State -3.36
10/12/2013 Middle Tennessee North Texas 6.5 80.34% 6.23 Decisive Middle Tennessee -0.27
10/12/2013 UL-Monroe Texas State 7.5 84.63% 7.52 Decisive Texas State 0.02
10/12/2013 Memphis Houston 10.5 91.23% 7.67 Decisive Memphis -2.83
10/12/2013 South Florida Connecticut 6 91.59% 0.74 Decisive South Florida -5.26
10/12/2013 Eastern Michigan Army 8 91.99% 9.28 Decisive Army 1.28
10/12/2013 Miami-Ohio Massachusetts 3 93.95% 1.01 Decisive Miami-Ohio -1.99
10/12/2013 Kent State Ball State 15 96.02% 18.13 Decisive Ball State 3.13
10/12/2013 New Mexico Wyoming 15 96.13% 7.87 Decisive New Mexico -7.13
10/12/2013 Hawaii Nevada-Las Vegas 9.5 96.35% 4.78 Decisive Hawaii -4.72
10/12/2013 Boston College Clemson 24.5 97.16% 18.10 Decisive Boston College -6.40
10/12/2013 Central Michigan Ohio 17 97.62% 23.91 Decisive Ohio 6.91
10/12/2013 Iowa State Texas Tech 16 97.96% 19.02 Decisive Texas Tech 3.02
10/12/2013 Colorado Arizona State 24.5 98.07% 17.01 Decisive Colorado -7.49
10/12/2013 Kansas Texas Christian 26 98.57% 12.81 Decisive Kansas -13.19
10/12/2013 Akron Northern Illinois 21.5 98.94% 10.79 Decisive Akron -10.71
10/12/2013 California U.C.L.A. 24.5 98.98% 24.03 Decisive California -0.47
10/12/2013 Idaho Arkansas State 24.5 99.32% 17.03 Decisive Idaho -7.47
10/12/2013 Western Carolina Auburn None

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