Week 7 NCAA Football: Games that will and won’t suck

So continuing from where we left off last week, let’s see how we did in our predictions:

Suck:

Baylor 66, Kansas 7  Result: Mega Suck

Ole Miss 52, New Mexico State 3. Result: Mega Suck

Texas 24, Oklahoma 17. Result: Totally Not Suck

Not suck:

Tennessee 38, Georgia 31.  Result: Not Suck

Clemson 43, Georgia Tech 24. Result: Suck

Notre Dame 41, Navy 24.  Result: Suck

I continue to be about 2-1 on the games that will suck, and I seem to be getting worse at predicting what games will actually be good.  I wasn’t far off in my prediction of Navy, they had only 6 pass attempts in the game.

So now, week 7.  The suck:

1) North Texas vs Western Kentucky

UNT got absolutely jackstomped by an FCS team last week (congratulations to Portland State, I guess) and 5-1 Western Kentucky plans on doing the exact same.  I’m not sure anyone was planning on watching this one anyway… Points model says WKU by FORTY THREE.  That’s definitely the record now.  Win model gives WKU just a 1.8% chance of choking.

2) Tulane vs Houston

The American Athletic Conference finally contributes to some suck. Clearly the points model is all about the 5-0 Cougars, whose only decent win is eking one out against 2-3 Louisville, whose best accomplishment was only losing by 3 to Clemson. This one could be closer than the records would indicate, as the win model thinks that the Green Wave have around a 10% chance of winning, but the points model says Cougars by 26.

3) Kansas vs Texas Tech

I’m tempted to retire Kansas from this, since they’re playing like an FCS team worse than an FCS team this year, but man, seeing them be terrible makes me feel okay about being a Purdue fan.  Points model says the Jayhawks have a 3.9% chance of winning, but I would take that bet 99 times out of 100.  Tech by 24 according to the points model, but I’d still take the over.

And now, the games that won’t suck:

1) New Mexico vs Hawaii

It won’t suck, but it will suck.  Hawaii is 2-4, New Mexico is 3-3, but neither really has anything impressive going on under their belts. I guess Hawaii beat a bad Colorado team, but they’re still the underdog in this one by .71 points according to the points model, but the win model gives the Warriors a 57% chance of winning.

2) Miami (FL) vs Virginia Tech

3-2 Da U hosts the 3-3 Hokies in what would be a stellar matchup if it were still the late 90s.  Unfortunately for us it’s the mid 2010s and here we are with the middle of the road in the ACC.  Points model says 1.35 point advantage for the Hurricanes, while the win model gives them a 54% chance of victory.

3) Washington State vs Oregon State

The Pac 12 has been taking wacky pills this year, so who knows where this one will end up.  Like North Texas last week, Washington State has also lost to Portland State this year (Portland State 2-0 against FBS teams, they could probably make a bowl if they had more scheduled!), though only by 7.  The Cougars are riding high after beating Oregon last week, but who knows if that means anything any more. This one is universally close through both models, though unanimous.  Washington State 50.2% chance of winning, with an expected victory of 1.4 points

And now, for the rest of the games this weekend: