Week 7 NCAA Football: Games that will and won’t suck

Games-That-Will-Wont-Suck

So continuing from where we left off last week, let’s see how we did in our predictions:

Suck:

Baylor 66, Kansas 7  Result: Mega Suck

Ole Miss 52, New Mexico State 3. Result: Mega Suck

Texas 24, Oklahoma 17. Result: Totally Not Suck

Not suck:

Tennessee 38, Georgia 31.  Result: Not Suck

Clemson 43, Georgia Tech 24. Result: Suck

Notre Dame 41, Navy 24.  Result: Suck

I continue to be about 2-1 on the games that will suck, and I seem to be getting worse at predicting what games will actually be good.  I wasn’t far off in my prediction of Navy, they had only 6 pass attempts in the game.

So now, week 7.  The suck:

1) North Texas vs Western Kentucky

UNT got absolutely jackstomped by an FCS team last week (congratulations to Portland State, I guess) and 5-1 Western Kentucky plans on doing the exact same.  I’m not sure anyone was planning on watching this one anyway… Points model says WKU by FORTY THREE.  That’s definitely the record now.  Win model gives WKU just a 1.8% chance of choking.

2) Tulane vs Houston

The American Athletic Conference finally contributes to some suck. Clearly the points model is all about the 5-0 Cougars, whose only decent win is eking one out against 2-3 Louisville, whose best accomplishment was only losing by 3 to Clemson. This one could be closer than the records would indicate, as the win model thinks that the Green Wave have around a 10% chance of winning, but the points model says Cougars by 26.

3) Kansas vs Texas Tech

I’m tempted to retire Kansas from this, since they’re playing like an FCS team worse than an FCS team this year, but man, seeing them be terrible makes me feel okay about being a Purdue fan.  Points model says the Jayhawks have a 3.9% chance of winning, but I would take that bet 99 times out of 100.  Tech by 24 according to the points model, but I’d still take the over.

And now, the games that won’t suck:

1) New Mexico vs Hawaii

It won’t suck, but it will suck.  Hawaii is 2-4, New Mexico is 3-3, but neither really has anything impressive going on under their belts. I guess Hawaii beat a bad Colorado team, but they’re still the underdog in this one by .71 points according to the points model, but the win model gives the Warriors a 57% chance of winning.

2) Miami (FL) vs Virginia Tech

3-2 Da U hosts the 3-3 Hokies in what would be a stellar matchup if it were still the late 90s.  Unfortunately for us it’s the mid 2010s and here we are with the middle of the road in the ACC.  Points model says 1.35 point advantage for the Hurricanes, while the win model gives them a 54% chance of victory.

3) Washington State vs Oregon State

The Pac 12 has been taking wacky pills this year, so who knows where this one will end up.  Like North Texas last week, Washington State has also lost to Portland State this year (Portland State 2-0 against FBS teams, they could probably make a bowl if they had more scheduled!), though only by 7.  The Cougars are riding high after beating Oregon last week, but who knows if that means anything any more. This one is universally close through both models, though unanimous.  Washington State 50.2% chance of winning, with an expected victory of 1.4 points

And now, for the rest of the games this weekend:

Date Home Visitor Home team win chance Home team MoV Models agree?
10/15/2015 North Texas W Kentucky 1.79% -42.54 Decisive
10/16/2015 Tulane Houston 10.36% -25.72 Decisive
10/16/2015 Kansas Texas Tech 3.87% -23.85 Decisive
10/16/2015 Iowa State TCU 7.02% -21.09 Decisive
10/17/2015 Miami (OH) N Illinois 27.13% -19.21 Decisive
10/16/2015 Utah State Boise State 30.40% -18.11 Decisive
10/16/2015 Fresno State UNLV 33.50% -17.82 Decisive
10/16/2015 Memphis Ole Miss 58.62% -15.81 Toss up
10/16/2015 Colorado Arizona 28.44% -14.58 Decisive
10/17/2015 UL Monroe Appalachian St 17.59% -14.34 Decisive
10/16/2015 Wyoming Nevada 5.30% -10.34 Decisive
10/16/2015 Kansas State Oklahoma 35.40% -9.79 Decisive
10/16/2015 Virginia Syracuse 27.53% -9.27 Decisive
10/16/2015 South Carolina Vanderbilt 52.27% -9.22 Toss up
10/13/2015 South Alabama Arkansas State 55.96% -9.12 Toss up
10/16/2015 Texas A&M Alabama 66.22% -7.99 Toss up
10/17/2015 FAU Marshall 12.97% -7.30 Decisive
10/16/2015 LSU Florida 36.56% -7.20 Decisive
10/16/2015 UConn USF 43.54% -6.62 Decisive
10/17/2015 Colorado State Air Force 28.34% -6.14 Decisive
10/16/2015 Minnesota Nebraska 77.95% -5.99 Toss up
10/17/2015 Notre Dame USC 73.13% -3.23 Toss up
10/17/2015 UMass Kent State 48.30% -2.92 Decisive
10/16/2015 East Carolina Tulsa 44.68% -2.66 Decisive
10/16/2015 Cent Michigan Buffalo 52.56% -2.33 Toss up
10/17/2015 New Mexico Hawaii 42.78% 0.71 Toss up
10/16/2015 Miami (FL) Virginia Tech 54.23% 1.35 Decisive
10/16/2015 Washington St Oregon State 50.24% 1.39 Decisive
10/15/2015 Stanford UCLA 51.53% 2.92 Decisive
10/17/2015 Northwestern Iowa 42.08% 2.94 Toss up
10/17/2015 Bowling Green Akron 65.52% 3.25 Decisive
10/17/2015 Old Dominion Charlotte 59.22% 3.55 Decisive
10/16/2015 BYU Cincinnati 63.03% 3.91 Decisive
10/17/2015 Indiana Rutgers 82.20% 3.93 Decisive
10/15/2015 Kentucky Auburn 69.37% 4.34 Decisive
10/16/2015 Ohio W Michigan 74.88% 4.78 Decisive
10/17/2015 Wisconsin Purdue 78.23% 5.03 Decisive
10/17/2015 Southern Miss UTSA 62.88% 5.57 Decisive
10/16/2015 Baylor West Virginia 68.06% 5.99 Decisive
10/16/2015 Miss St LA Tech 61.95% 6.38 Decisive
10/16/2015 San Jose State San Diego State 42.75% 6.89 Toss up
10/16/2015 Florida State Louisville 84.82% 7.24 Decisive
10/16/2015 North Carolina Wake Forest 65.47% 7.78 Decisive
10/16/2015 Clemson Boston College 91.14% 7.80 Decisive
10/16/2015 Georgia Tech Pitt 20.02% 8.03 Toss up
10/17/2015 Ohio State Penn State 66.58% 9.92 Decisive
10/16/2015 Georgia Missouri 41.98% 10.16 Toss up
10/17/2015 Ga Southern New Mexico St 95.21% 10.44 Decisive
10/16/2015 Troy Idaho 49.29% 11.09 Toss up
10/16/2015 Utah Arizona State 85.00% 12.23 Decisive
10/16/2015 Michigan Michigan State 52.85% 13.69 Decisive
10/16/2015 Washington Oregon 66.61% 14.62 Decisive
10/16/2015 Ball State Georgia State 80.19% 14.85 Decisive
10/16/2015 Mid Tennessee FIU 49.81% 16.11 Toss up
10/16/2015 Toledo E Michigan 97.28% 20.35 Decisive
10/17/2015 Army Bucknell 76.66% 21.11 Decisive
10/16/2015 Temple UCF 99.20% 22.87 Decisive