So continuing from where we left off last week, let’s see how we did in our predictions:
Suck:
Baylor 66, Kansas 7 Result: Mega Suck
Ole Miss 52, New Mexico State 3. Result: Mega Suck
Texas 24, Oklahoma 17. Result: Totally Not Suck
Not suck:
Tennessee 38, Georgia 31. Result: Not Suck
Clemson 43, Georgia Tech 24. Result: Suck
Notre Dame 41, Navy 24. Result: Suck
I continue to be about 2-1 on the games that will suck, and I seem to be getting worse at predicting what games will actually be good. I wasn’t far off in my prediction of Navy, they had only 6 pass attempts in the game.
So now, week 7. The suck:
1) North Texas vs Western Kentucky
UNT got absolutely jackstomped by an FCS team last week (congratulations to Portland State, I guess) and 5-1 Western Kentucky plans on doing the exact same. I’m not sure anyone was planning on watching this one anyway… Points model says WKU by FORTY THREE. That’s definitely the record now. Win model gives WKU just a 1.8% chance of choking.
2) Tulane vs Houston
The American Athletic Conference finally contributes to some suck. Clearly the points model is all about the 5-0 Cougars, whose only decent win is eking one out against 2-3 Louisville, whose best accomplishment was only losing by 3 to Clemson. This one could be closer than the records would indicate, as the win model thinks that the Green Wave have around a 10% chance of winning, but the points model says Cougars by 26.
3) Kansas vs Texas Tech
I’m tempted to retire Kansas from this, since they’re playing like an FCS team worse than an FCS team this year, but man, seeing them be terrible makes me feel okay about being a Purdue fan. Points model says the Jayhawks have a 3.9% chance of winning, but I would take that bet 99 times out of 100. Tech by 24 according to the points model, but I’d still take the over.
And now, the games that won’t suck:
1) New Mexico vs Hawaii
It won’t suck, but it will suck. Hawaii is 2-4, New Mexico is 3-3, but neither really has anything impressive going on under their belts. I guess Hawaii beat a bad Colorado team, but they’re still the underdog in this one by .71 points according to the points model, but the win model gives the Warriors a 57% chance of winning.
2) Miami (FL) vs Virginia Tech
3-2 Da U hosts the 3-3 Hokies in what would be a stellar matchup if it were still the late 90s. Unfortunately for us it’s the mid 2010s and here we are with the middle of the road in the ACC. Points model says 1.35 point advantage for the Hurricanes, while the win model gives them a 54% chance of victory.
3) Washington State vs Oregon State
The Pac 12 has been taking wacky pills this year, so who knows where this one will end up. Like North Texas last week, Washington State has also lost to Portland State this year (Portland State 2-0 against FBS teams, they could probably make a bowl if they had more scheduled!), though only by 7. The Cougars are riding high after beating Oregon last week, but who knows if that means anything any more. This one is universally close through both models, though unanimous. Washington State 50.2% chance of winning, with an expected victory of 1.4 points
And now, for the rest of the games this weekend:
Date | Home | Visitor | Home team win chance | Home team MoV | Models agree? |
10/15/2015 | North Texas | W Kentucky | 1.79% | -42.54 | Decisive |
10/16/2015 | Tulane | Houston | 10.36% | -25.72 | Decisive |
10/16/2015 | Kansas | Texas Tech | 3.87% | -23.85 | Decisive |
10/16/2015 | Iowa State | TCU | 7.02% | -21.09 | Decisive |
10/17/2015 | Miami (OH) | N Illinois | 27.13% | -19.21 | Decisive |
10/16/2015 | Utah State | Boise State | 30.40% | -18.11 | Decisive |
10/16/2015 | Fresno State | UNLV | 33.50% | -17.82 | Decisive |
10/16/2015 | Memphis | Ole Miss | 58.62% | -15.81 | Toss up |
10/16/2015 | Colorado | Arizona | 28.44% | -14.58 | Decisive |
10/17/2015 | UL Monroe | Appalachian St | 17.59% | -14.34 | Decisive |
10/16/2015 | Wyoming | Nevada | 5.30% | -10.34 | Decisive |
10/16/2015 | Kansas State | Oklahoma | 35.40% | -9.79 | Decisive |
10/16/2015 | Virginia | Syracuse | 27.53% | -9.27 | Decisive |
10/16/2015 | South Carolina | Vanderbilt | 52.27% | -9.22 | Toss up |
10/13/2015 | South Alabama | Arkansas State | 55.96% | -9.12 | Toss up |
10/16/2015 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 66.22% | -7.99 | Toss up |
10/17/2015 | FAU | Marshall | 12.97% | -7.30 | Decisive |
10/16/2015 | LSU | Florida | 36.56% | -7.20 | Decisive |
10/16/2015 | UConn | USF | 43.54% | -6.62 | Decisive |
10/17/2015 | Colorado State | Air Force | 28.34% | -6.14 | Decisive |
10/16/2015 | Minnesota | Nebraska | 77.95% | -5.99 | Toss up |
10/17/2015 | Notre Dame | USC | 73.13% | -3.23 | Toss up |
10/17/2015 | UMass | Kent State | 48.30% | -2.92 | Decisive |
10/16/2015 | East Carolina | Tulsa | 44.68% | -2.66 | Decisive |
10/16/2015 | Cent Michigan | Buffalo | 52.56% | -2.33 | Toss up |
10/17/2015 | New Mexico | Hawaii | 42.78% | 0.71 | Toss up |
10/16/2015 | Miami (FL) | Virginia Tech | 54.23% | 1.35 | Decisive |
10/16/2015 | Washington St | Oregon State | 50.24% | 1.39 | Decisive |
10/15/2015 | Stanford | UCLA | 51.53% | 2.92 | Decisive |
10/17/2015 | Northwestern | Iowa | 42.08% | 2.94 | Toss up |
10/17/2015 | Bowling Green | Akron | 65.52% | 3.25 | Decisive |
10/17/2015 | Old Dominion | Charlotte | 59.22% | 3.55 | Decisive |
10/16/2015 | BYU | Cincinnati | 63.03% | 3.91 | Decisive |
10/17/2015 | Indiana | Rutgers | 82.20% | 3.93 | Decisive |
10/15/2015 | Kentucky | Auburn | 69.37% | 4.34 | Decisive |
10/16/2015 | Ohio | W Michigan | 74.88% | 4.78 | Decisive |
10/17/2015 | Wisconsin | Purdue | 78.23% | 5.03 | Decisive |
10/17/2015 | Southern Miss | UTSA | 62.88% | 5.57 | Decisive |
10/16/2015 | Baylor | West Virginia | 68.06% | 5.99 | Decisive |
10/16/2015 | Miss St | LA Tech | 61.95% | 6.38 | Decisive |
10/16/2015 | San Jose State | San Diego State | 42.75% | 6.89 | Toss up |
10/16/2015 | Florida State | Louisville | 84.82% | 7.24 | Decisive |
10/16/2015 | North Carolina | Wake Forest | 65.47% | 7.78 | Decisive |
10/16/2015 | Clemson | Boston College | 91.14% | 7.80 | Decisive |
10/16/2015 | Georgia Tech | Pitt | 20.02% | 8.03 | Toss up |
10/17/2015 | Ohio State | Penn State | 66.58% | 9.92 | Decisive |
10/16/2015 | Georgia | Missouri | 41.98% | 10.16 | Toss up |
10/17/2015 | Ga Southern | New Mexico St | 95.21% | 10.44 | Decisive |
10/16/2015 | Troy | Idaho | 49.29% | 11.09 | Toss up |
10/16/2015 | Utah | Arizona State | 85.00% | 12.23 | Decisive |
10/16/2015 | Michigan | Michigan State | 52.85% | 13.69 | Decisive |
10/16/2015 | Washington | Oregon | 66.61% | 14.62 | Decisive |
10/16/2015 | Ball State | Georgia State | 80.19% | 14.85 | Decisive |
10/16/2015 | Mid Tennessee | FIU | 49.81% | 16.11 | Toss up |
10/16/2015 | Toledo | E Michigan | 97.28% | 20.35 | Decisive |
10/17/2015 | Army | Bucknell | 76.66% | 21.11 | Decisive |
10/16/2015 | Temple | UCF | 99.20% | 22.87 | Decisive |