Week 5 NCAA Football: Games that will and won’t suck

Our second part in our recurring series.  Before we get to week 5, let’s see how we fared in our predictions for week 4:

Suck:

Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt – Ole Miss 27, Vanderbilt 16. Result: Not Suck

Ohio State vs Western Michigan – Ohio State 38, Western Michigan 12. Result: Suck

South Alabama vs NC State – NC State 63, South Alabama 13. Result: Mega Suck

Not suck:

Minnesota vs Ohio – Minnesota 27, Ohio 24. Result: Not Suck

Arizona vs UCLA – UCLA 56, Arizona 30.  Result: Suck

Syracuse vs LSU – LSU 34, Syracuse 24. Result: Not Suck

So basically 2/3 for each prediction.  I’ll take it.

Now, onto week 5:

Games that will suck:

1) Cal vs Washington State

Now this one may not suck as much as it may seem.  The points system says that Cal wins by 17.76 (FEEL THE FREEDOM!) points, but this is largely because the points system thinks that Washington State sucks after losing to an FCS school (Portland State) by 3 in week 1.  Certainly they aren’t good, and Cal seems to be on fire, but the win model sees through it, giving Cal only an 85% chance of winning. This is easily the worst matchup from the “Power 6” conferences in week 5, though Michigan State over Purdue is seen as more of a lopsided game by the win model (90.5% chance of Spartan victory).

2) Appalachian State vs Wyoming

This one is a bit surprising because it’s App State who is favored by almost 17. After a pair of 49-0 victories over Howard (FCS) and Old Dominion (FBS year 2), and “only” losing to Clemson by 31, the points model thinks that App State is only .6 points below average. Wyoming, on the other hand, is absolutely dreadful. 0-4, with losses to an FCS team (North Dakota, not even the best FCS school in their own state), and three bottom tier teams, including the previously mentioned Washington State.  Save your energy. 91% chance of Appalachian State going home with the W, with a prediction of 16.98 points.

3) Charlotte vs Temple

No surprise here, as the 49ers participate in their first season of FBS football.  I expect to see them a bit more on this list. Temple, on the other hand, is getting some benefit for being 3-0, with wins over Penn State, Cincinnati, and UMass.  The points model and win model are in strong agreement on this one.  Temple goes 4-0, with a 90+% chance of winning and a 17 point expected margin of victory.  Charlotte is severely hamstrung in the points method with a 59 point loss to Middle Tennessee State in week 3.

Games that won’t suck:

1) Georgia vs Alabama

This is probably the game I would set my DVR to record if I were you, of the three games I’m putting out there.  An SEC matchup between a 4-0 Bulldog team against a 3-1 Crimson Tide.  This may be the game of the week, and from what the models say, it seems to have the potential to live up to the hype. The computers love the SEC this year (though they seem to love them every year) with the Bulldogs at #11 overall, and Alabama closely behind at #13. The win model says the Bulldogs have a 60% chance of victory, while the points model puts it much closer, a 0.12 point victory in the favor of Georgia.

2) Rice vs Western Kentucky

3-1 Western Kentucky heads to Houston to place the Owls, who, despite hanging around with Indiana, are seen by the computers as on par with their Conference USA peers. But hey, take this as an opportunity to really dive into Conference USA.  You know you’ve always wanted to, you just couldn’t find it on TV.  I’ll help you: it’s on Fox Sports Networks this week.  Probably limited to the Houston and Bowling Green (KY) area, if Fox Sports actually cared about the welfare of their viewers I were to guess. Win method says 34% chance of Rice winning, and points method says .31 point win for WKU.

3) UMass vs FIU

Another prestigious Conference USA team gets a dose of MACtion.  Who can wait for this one.  Save your energy and just watch Georgia vs Bama. Win method: 34% chance UMass.  Points: .39 win by FIU. But if you get desperate, you can find it on WatchESPN.  We hope you don’t get desperate.

Here are the rest of the games so you can take a look: