Week 5 NCAA Football: Games that will and won't suck

September 29, 2015  — FordRChris

Games-That-Will-Wont-Suck Our second part in our recurring series.  Before we get to week 5, let's see how we fared in our predictions for week 4: Suck:

Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt - Ole Miss 27, Vanderbilt 16. Result: Not Suck

Ohio State vs Western Michigan - Ohio State 38, Western Michigan 12. Result: Suck

South Alabama vs NC State - NC State 63, South Alabama 13. Result: Mega Suck

Not suck:

Minnesota vs Ohio - Minnesota 27, Ohio 24. Result: Not Suck

Arizona vs UCLA - UCLA 56, Arizona 30.  Result: Suck

Syracuse vs LSU - LSU 34, Syracuse 24. Result: Not Suck

So basically 2/3 for each prediction.  I'll take it.   Now, onto week 5:   Games that will suck: 1) Cal vs Washington State

Now this one may not suck as much as it may seem.  The points system says that Cal wins by 17.76 (FEEL THE FREEDOM!) points, but this is largely because the points system thinks that Washington State sucks after losing to an FCS school (Portland State) by 3 in week 1.  Certainly they aren't good, and Cal seems to be on fire, but the win model sees through it, giving Cal only an 85% chance of winning. This is easily the worst matchup from the "Power 6" conferences in week 5, though Michigan State over Purdue is seen as more of a lopsided game by the win model (90.5% chance of Spartan victory).

2) Appalachian State vs Wyoming

This one is a bit surprising because it's App State who is favored by almost 17. After a pair of 49-0 victories over Howard (FCS) and Old Dominion (FBS year 2), and "only" losing to Clemson by 31, the points model thinks that App State is only .6 points below average. Wyoming, on the other hand, is absolutely dreadful. 0-4, with losses to an FCS team (North Dakota, not even the best FCS school in their own state), and three bottom tier teams, including the previously mentioned Washington State.  Save your energy. 91% chance of Appalachian State going home with the W, with a prediction of 16.98 points.

3) Charlotte vs Temple

No surprise here, as the 49ers participate in their first season of FBS football.  I expect to see them a bit more on this list. Temple, on the other hand, is getting some benefit for being 3-0, with wins over Penn State, Cincinnati, and UMass.  The points model and win model are in strong agreement on this one.  Temple goes 4-0, with a 90+% chance of winning and a 17 point expected margin of victory.  Charlotte is severely hamstrung in the points method with a 59 point loss to Middle Tennessee State in week 3.

  Games that won't suck: 1) Georgia vs Alabama

This is probably the game I would set my DVR to record if I were you, of the three games I'm putting out there.  An SEC matchup between a 4-0 Bulldog team against a 3-1 Crimson Tide.  This may be the game of the week, and from what the models say, it seems to have the potential to live up to the hype. The computers love the SEC this year (though they seem to love them every year) with the Bulldogs at #11 overall, and Alabama closely behind at #13. The win model says the Bulldogs have a 60% chance of victory, while the points model puts it much closer, a 0.12 point victory in the favor of Georgia.

2) Rice vs Western Kentucky

3-1 Western Kentucky heads to Houston to place the Owls, who, despite hanging around with Indiana, are seen by the computers as on par with their Conference USA peers. But hey, take this as an opportunity to really dive into Conference USA.  You know you've always wanted to, you just couldn't find it on TV.  I'll help you: it's on Fox Sports Networks this week.  Probably limited to the Houston and Bowling Green (KY) area, if Fox Sports actually cared about the welfare of their viewers I were to guess. Win method says 34% chance of Rice winning, and points method says .31 point win for WKU.

3) UMass vs FIU

Another prestigious Conference USA team gets a dose of MACtion.  Who can wait for this one.  Save your energy and just watch Georgia vs Bama. Win method: 34% chance UMass.  Points: .39 win by FIU. But if you get desperate, you can find it on WatchESPN.  We hope you don't get desperate.

Here are the rest of the games so you can take a look:
Date Home Visitor Home team win chance Home team MoV Models agree?
10/2/2015 Cal Washington St 84.75% 17.76 Decisive
10/2/2015 Appalachian St Wyoming 91.61% 16.98 Decisive
10/2/2015 Penn State Army 95.42% 14.49 Decisive
10/3/2015 New Mexico New Mexico St 65.81% 14.22 Decisive
10/3/2015 Arkansas State Idaho 49.72% 14.19 Toss up
10/3/2015 Michigan State Purdue 90.57% 14.03 Decisive
10/2/2015 BYU UConn 71.23% 13.43 Decisive
10/2/2015 Wisconsin Iowa 32.03% 13.29 Toss up
10/2/2015 LSU E Michigan 88.77% 12.32 Decisive
10/2/2015 NC State Louisville 89.51% 11.46 Decisive
10/3/2015 Southern Miss North Texas 76.41% 11.18 Decisive
10/2/2015 TCU Texas 76.32% 10.86 Decisive
10/3/2015 Mid Tennessee Vanderbilt 70.38% 10.84 Decisive
10/2/2015 UCLA Arizona State 76.43% 9.39 Decisive
10/2/2015 Boise State Hawaii 43.50% 9.29 Toss up
10/2/2015 Tennessee Arkansas 61.83% 8.61 Decisive
10/2/2015 Iowa State Kansas 83.32% 8.57 Decisive
10/2/2015 Northwestern Minnesota 72.07% 8.11 Decisive
10/2/2015 Virginia Tech Pitt 51.41% 7.68 Decisive
10/2/2015 Georgia Tech North Carolina 53.84% 7.24 Decisive
10/3/2015 Marshall Old Dominion 49.67% 6.59 Toss up
10/3/2015 San Diego State Fresno State 40.86% 4.99 Toss up
10/3/2015 LA Tech LA-Lafayette 42.40% 4.72 Toss up
10/2/2015 Oklahoma West Virginia 66.25% 3.92 Decisive
10/2/2015 Oklahoma State Kansas State 50.58% 3.74 Decisive
10/3/2015 Kent State Miami (OH) 48.17% 3.47 Toss up
10/2/2015 Troy South Alabama 37.12% 3.45 Toss up
10/2/2015 Tulsa Houston 47.95% 2.92 Toss up
10/2/2015 SMU East Carolina 57.03% 2.47 Decisive
10/2/2015 Texas A&M Miss St 74.21% 2.41 Decisive
10/3/2015 Nevada UNLV 62.48% 2.24 Decisive
10/2/2015 Missouri South Carolina 72.89% 1.70 Decisive
10/2/2015 Colorado Oregon 50.40% 1.62 Decisive
10/3/2015 UL Monroe Ga Southern 42.21% 1.37 Toss up
10/2/2015 Duke Boston College 58.76% 0.76 Decisive
10/3/2015 Buffalo Bowling Green 53.49% 0.60 Decisive
10/2/2015 Georgia Alabama 60.91% 0.12 Decisive
10/3/2015 Rice W Kentucky 34.27% -0.31 Decisive
10/2/2015 UMass FIU 34.63% -0.39 Decisive
10/3/2015 Navy Air Force 60.30% -0.50 Toss up
10/2/2015 Auburn San Jose State 73.46% -0.51 Toss up
10/2/2015 Tulane UCF 82.12% -0.84 Toss up
10/2/2015 Illinois Nebraska 49.08% -1.27 Decisive
10/2/2015 Stanford Arizona 40.83% -1.95 Decisive
10/3/2015 Cent Michigan N Illinois 31.76% -2.65 Decisive
10/2/2015 Texas Tech Baylor 58.05% -3.11 Toss up
10/2/2015 Clemson Notre Dame 37.19% -4.02 Decisive
10/3/2015 UTEP UTSA 59.09% -4.09 Toss up
10/3/2015 Maryland Michigan 33.12% -6.96 Decisive
10/3/2015 Akron Ohio 15.65% -7.13 Decisive
10/1/2015 Cincinnati Miami (FL) 33.25% -8.35 Decisive
10/3/2015 Cincinnati Miami (FL) 33.25% -8.35 Decisive
10/3/2015 Ball State Toledo 31.37% -8.56 Decisive
10/2/2015 USF Memphis 17.31% -10.73 Decisive
10/2/2015 Utah State Colorado State 52.22% -12.43 Toss up
10/2/2015 Florida Ole Miss 49.50% -13.75 Decisive
10/2/2015 Indiana Ohio State 41.18% -16.39 Decisive
10/2/2015 Wake Forest Florida State 21.99% -16.79 Decisive
10/2/2015 Charlotte Temple 18.38% -17.16 Decisive

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