NCAA Football Week 11 Predictions

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by

Chris Ford

Week 11 brings a flurry of challenging games for the top contenders.  Baylor faces Oklahoma, Alabama faces LSU, and Oregon and Stanford battle for what will likely be the Pac 12 North crown.  Meanwhile, ACC favorite Florida State takes on a terrible* Wake Forest team (* = much to the chagrin of Mrs. AMSTS, a Wake alumna.)  The outcomes of this weeks games will dramatically shape who heads into the top positions as we get into crunch time in the season.

Unfortunately for fans of close matchups, the computers tend to think these games will be decided by 10 or more points, with LSU having the best chance of the upset according to the points model.  The wins model, however, predicts a chance of OU taking Baylor to the house, though at the time of writing (Halftime on Thursday), that seems unlikely.

Meanwhile, the two games of the week, according to the models at least, seem to be Tulane at UTSA, as the Roadrunners attempt to make bowl eligibility for the first time in their short tenure in FBS.

The second game of the week is Houston at UCF.  Ranked #25 and #20 respectively, this game will determine what the best 1 loss mid-major team in the country is.  I’ll bet that sentence caused you to stop everything you’re doing and run to set your DVR.

With that being said, here are the rest of the predictions.  The wins method is 149-55 since Week 7, while the points method is 150-54 straight up, and 101-96 against the spread.

DateVisitorHomeVegas lineHome team win chanceHome team MoVModels agree?Spread team pickDifference over spread
11/5/2013Bowling GreenMiami-Ohio-23.55.59%-23.13DecisiveMiami-Ohio0.37
11/5/2013OhioBuffalo347.40%-2.75DecisiveOhio-5.75
11/6/2013Central MichiganBall State19.583.10%19.97DecisiveBall State0.47
11/7/2013OregonStanford-1039.61%-14.15DecisiveOregon-4.15
11/7/2013OklahomaBaylor13.553.37%23.24DecisiveBaylor9.74
11/7/2013TroyUL-Lafayette1366.83%8.71DecisiveTroy-4.29
11/8/2013LouisvilleConnecticut-27.51.90%-33.60DecisiveLouisville-6.10
11/8/2013Air ForceNew Mexico349.91%3.94Toss upNew Mexico0.94
11/9/2013MissouriKentucky-144.42%-18.18DecisiveMissouri-4.18
11/9/2013Florida StateWake Forest-354.93%-31.64DecisiveWake Forest3.36
11/9/2013Boston CollegeNew Mexico State-246.87%-24.36DecisiveBoston College-0.36
11/9/2013Fresno StateWyoming-107.14%-8.70DecisiveWyoming1.30
11/9/2013Southern CalCalifornia-178.26%-19.59DecisiveSouthern Cal-2.59
11/9/2013IowaPurdue-1615.22%-21.42DecisiveIowa-5.42
11/9/2013AuburnTennessee-719.35%-10.63DecisiveAuburn-3.63
11/9/2013Notre DamePittsburgh-419.56%-4.77DecisiveNotre Dame-0.77
11/9/2013Texas ChristianIowa State-723.52%-9.49DecisiveTexas Christian-2.49
11/9/2013TexasWest Virginia-824.19%-11.00DecisiveTexas-3.00
11/9/2013Western KentuckyArmy-6.525.29%-8.29DecisiveWestern Kentucky-1.79
11/9/2013Arizona StateUtah-6.528.08%-9.78DecisiveArizona State-3.28
11/9/2013TulaneTexas-San Antonio733.32%-0.40DecisiveTulane-7.40
11/9/2013U.C.L.A.Arizona040.69%-3.14DecisiveU.C.L.A.-3.14
11/9/2013Brigham YoungWisconsin741.55%2.71Toss upBrigham Young-4.29
11/9/2013S-M-UCincinnati9.549.64%9.31Toss upS-M-U-0.19
11/9/2013Utah StateNevada-Las Vegas-12.550.06%-22.19Toss upUtah State-9.69
11/9/2013Nevada-RenoColorado State950.23%6.56DecisiveNevada-Reno-2.44
11/9/2013HoustonU-C-F11.553.22%0.31DecisiveHouston-11.19
11/9/2013SyracuseMaryland553.40%-0.90Toss upSyracuse-5.90
11/9/2013Arkansas StateUL-Monroe657.04%-3.71Toss upArkansas State-9.71
11/9/2013VanderbiltFlorida1058.42%6.44DecisiveVanderbilt-3.56
11/9/2013Penn StateMinnesota1.559.00%-0.29Toss upPenn State-1.79
11/9/2013IllinoisIndiana1061.73%7.51DecisiveIllinois-2.49
11/9/2013NebraskaMichigan764.32%1.30DecisiveNebraska-5.70
11/9/2013Western MichiganEastern Michigan-264.37%-2.89Toss upWestern Michigan-0.89
11/9/2013San Diego StateSan Jose State766.74%5.04DecisiveSan Diego State-1.96
11/9/2013VirginiaNorth Carolina14.567.28%7.18DecisiveVirginia-7.32
11/9/2013Virginia TechMiami-Florida669.65%6.13DecisiveMiami-Florida0.13
11/9/2013Kansas StateTexas Tech374.37%0.32DecisiveKansas State-2.68
11/9/2013Southern MissLouisiana Tech15.575.82%13.48DecisiveSouthern Miss-2.02
11/9/2013Mississippi StateTexas A+M1876.69%9.31DecisiveMississippi State-8.69
11/9/2013Old DominionIdaho78.03%2.29DecisiveOld DominionN/A
11/9/2013Louisiana StateAlabama1178.21%10.85DecisiveLouisiana State-0.15
11/9/2013ColoradoWashington2879.29%20.14DecisiveColorado-7.86
11/9/2013No Carolina StateDuke979.70%9.86DecisiveDuke0.86
11/9/2013U-A-BMarshall2180.35%21.13DecisiveMarshall0.13
11/9/2013ArkansasMississippi1780.93%15.50DecisiveArkansas-1.50
11/9/2013TulsaEast Carolina14.586.49%15.39DecisiveEast Carolina0.89
11/9/2013Tennessee-MartinMemphis88.28%25.00DecisiveTennessee-MartinN/A
11/9/2013HawaiiNavy1889.38%14.22DecisiveHawaii-3.78
11/9/2013KansasOklahoma State30.589.59%23.25DecisiveKansas-7.25
11/9/2013Florida IntlMiddle Tennessee17.592.13%20.05DecisiveMiddle Tennessee2.55
11/9/2013UTEPNorth Texas2594.55%21.97DecisiveUTEP-3.03
11/9/2013Appalachian StateGeorgia98.51%35.17DecisiveAppalachian StateN/A