NCAA Football Week 11 Predictions

Week 11 brings a flurry of challenging games for the top contenders.  Baylor faces Oklahoma, Alabama faces LSU, and Oregon and Stanford battle for what will likely be the Pac 12 North crown.  Meanwhile, ACC favorite Florida State takes on a terrible* Wake Forest team (* = much to the chagrin of Mrs. AMSTS, a Wake alumna.)  The outcomes of this weeks games will dramatically shape who heads into the top positions as we get into crunch time in the season.

Unfortunately for fans of close matchups, the computers tend to think these games will be decided by 10 or more points, with LSU having the best chance of the upset according to the points model.  The wins model, however, predicts a chance of OU taking Baylor to the house, though at the time of writing (Halftime on Thursday), that seems unlikely.

Meanwhile, the two games of the week, according to the models at least, seem to be Tulane at UTSA, as the Roadrunners attempt to make bowl eligibility for the first time in their short tenure in FBS.

The second game of the week is Houston at UCF.  Ranked #25 and #20 respectively, this game will determine what the best 1 loss mid-major team in the country is.  I’ll bet that sentence caused you to stop everything you’re doing and run to set your DVR.

With that being said, here are the rest of the predictions.  The wins method is 149-55 since Week 7, while the points method is 150-54 straight up, and 101-96 against the spread.

Date
Visitor
Home
Vegas line
Home team win chance
Home team MoV
Models agree?
Spread team pick
Difference over spread
11/5/2013
Bowling Green
Miami-Ohio
-23.5
5.59%
-23.13
Decisive
Miami-Ohio
0.37
11/5/2013
Ohio
Buffalo
3
47.40%
-2.75
Decisive
Ohio
-5.75
11/6/2013
Central Michigan
Ball State
19.5
83.10%
19.97
Decisive
Ball State
0.47
11/7/2013
Oregon
Stanford
-10
39.61%
-14.15
Decisive
Oregon
-4.15
11/7/2013
Oklahoma
Baylor
13.5
53.37%
23.24
Decisive
Baylor
9.74
11/7/2013
Troy
UL-Lafayette
13
66.83%
8.71
Decisive
Troy
-4.29
11/8/2013
Louisville
Connecticut
-27.5
1.90%
-33.60
Decisive
Louisville
-6.10
11/8/2013
Air Force
New Mexico
3
49.91%
3.94
Toss up
New Mexico
0.94
11/9/2013
Missouri
Kentucky
-14
4.42%
-18.18
Decisive
Missouri
-4.18
11/9/2013
Florida State
Wake Forest
-35
4.93%
-31.64
Decisive
Wake Forest
3.36
11/9/2013
Boston College
New Mexico State
-24
6.87%
-24.36
Decisive
Boston College
-0.36
11/9/2013
Fresno State
Wyoming
-10
7.14%
-8.70
Decisive
Wyoming
1.30
11/9/2013
Southern Cal
California
-17
8.26%
-19.59
Decisive
Southern Cal
-2.59
11/9/2013
Iowa
Purdue
-16
15.22%
-21.42
Decisive
Iowa
-5.42
11/9/2013
Auburn
Tennessee
-7
19.35%
-10.63
Decisive
Auburn
-3.63
11/9/2013
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh
-4
19.56%
-4.77
Decisive
Notre Dame
-0.77
11/9/2013
Texas Christian
Iowa State
-7
23.52%
-9.49
Decisive
Texas Christian
-2.49
11/9/2013
Texas
West Virginia
-8
24.19%
-11.00
Decisive
Texas
-3.00
11/9/2013
Western Kentucky
Army
-6.5
25.29%
-8.29
Decisive
Western Kentucky
-1.79
11/9/2013
Arizona State
Utah
-6.5
28.08%
-9.78
Decisive
Arizona State
-3.28
11/9/2013
Tulane
Texas-San Antonio
7
33.32%
-0.40
Decisive
Tulane
-7.40
11/9/2013
U.C.L.A.
Arizona
0
40.69%
-3.14
Decisive
U.C.L.A.
-3.14
11/9/2013
Brigham Young
Wisconsin
7
41.55%
2.71
Toss up
Brigham Young
-4.29
11/9/2013
S-M-U
Cincinnati
9.5
49.64%
9.31
Toss up
S-M-U
-0.19
11/9/2013
Utah State
Nevada-Las Vegas
-12.5
50.06%
-22.19
Toss up
Utah State
-9.69
11/9/2013
Nevada-Reno
Colorado State
9
50.23%
6.56
Decisive
Nevada-Reno
-2.44
11/9/2013
Houston
U-C-F
11.5
53.22%
0.31
Decisive
Houston
-11.19
11/9/2013
Syracuse
Maryland
5
53.40%
-0.90
Toss up
Syracuse
-5.90
11/9/2013
Arkansas State
UL-Monroe
6
57.04%
-3.71
Toss up
Arkansas State
-9.71
11/9/2013
Vanderbilt
Florida
10
58.42%
6.44
Decisive
Vanderbilt
-3.56
11/9/2013
Penn State
Minnesota
1.5
59.00%
-0.29
Toss up
Penn State
-1.79
11/9/2013
Illinois
Indiana
10
61.73%
7.51
Decisive
Illinois
-2.49
11/9/2013
Nebraska
Michigan
7
64.32%
1.30
Decisive
Nebraska
-5.70
11/9/2013
Western Michigan
Eastern Michigan
-2
64.37%
-2.89
Toss up
Western Michigan
-0.89
11/9/2013
San Diego State
San Jose State
7
66.74%
5.04
Decisive
San Diego State
-1.96
11/9/2013
Virginia
North Carolina
14.5
67.28%
7.18
Decisive
Virginia
-7.32
11/9/2013
Virginia Tech
Miami-Florida
6
69.65%
6.13
Decisive
Miami-Florida
0.13
11/9/2013
Kansas State
Texas Tech
3
74.37%
0.32
Decisive
Kansas State
-2.68
11/9/2013
Southern Miss
Louisiana Tech
15.5
75.82%
13.48
Decisive
Southern Miss
-2.02
11/9/2013
Mississippi State
Texas A+M
18
76.69%
9.31
Decisive
Mississippi State
-8.69
11/9/2013
Old Dominion
Idaho
78.03%
2.29
Decisive
Old Dominion
N/A
11/9/2013
Louisiana State
Alabama
11
78.21%
10.85
Decisive
Louisiana State
-0.15
11/9/2013
Colorado
Washington
28
79.29%
20.14
Decisive
Colorado
-7.86
11/9/2013
No Carolina State
Duke
9
79.70%
9.86
Decisive
Duke
0.86
11/9/2013
U-A-B
Marshall
21
80.35%
21.13
Decisive
Marshall
0.13
11/9/2013
Arkansas
Mississippi
17
80.93%
15.50
Decisive
Arkansas
-1.50
11/9/2013
Tulsa
East Carolina
14.5
86.49%
15.39
Decisive
East Carolina
0.89
11/9/2013
Tennessee-Martin
Memphis
88.28%
25.00
Decisive
Tennessee-Martin
N/A
11/9/2013
Hawaii
Navy
18
89.38%
14.22
Decisive
Hawaii
-3.78
11/9/2013
Kansas
Oklahoma State
30.5
89.59%
23.25
Decisive
Kansas
-7.25
11/9/2013
Florida Intl
Middle Tennessee
17.5
92.13%
20.05
Decisive
Middle Tennessee
2.55
11/9/2013
UTEP
North Texas
25
94.55%
21.97
Decisive
UTEP
-3.03
11/9/2013
Appalachian State
Georgia
98.51%
35.17
Decisive
Appalachian State
N/A