A dynamic Division 2 addition to the rankings has made some changes this week.
Let’s investigate how it works:
Previously, all Division 2 teams were given a ranking of -15, which means the average team has a 95% chance of defeating a Division 2 team. This was based off of the football 1-AA ranking that I used, that demonstrated about a 5% chance that a lower division team would win. This clearly isn’t the case in basketball, as this year, Division 2 is 12-334 (3.5%). Now, I have redefined the rating to factor in how Division 2 teams do against Division 1, and for nerds, here’s the function:
Ranking = 20*LOG10(-(Win Pct of Division 2-1))^(1/3)/(Win Pct of Division 2)^(1/3)
The biggest effect this had was to penalize those teams with a weak schedule and lots of Division 2 teams in the mix, most prominently: Murray State. More or less this resolves the “Murray State Problem” that has been seen in previous rankings. The adjustment to the Division 2 rankings also helped the bottom teams, as now only one team is worse than your average Division 2 team (Binghamton). Other big losers were Eastern Illinois, UNC-Central, and High Point.
Bottom five teams this week are Bryant, Fairleigh-Dickinson, UC-Davis, and the two worst teams in Division 1 since this poll started: Towson and Binghamton.
Fact of the bottom 5: 100% of Bryant University classes are taught by the university’s faculty.