NCAA 2018 Tournament Bracket: How To Use the AMSTS Computer Rankings To Win
The final AMSTS Computer Rankings are out and with them, all the help you need for your bracket.
Why pick the AMSTS Computer Rankings?
- They're computer rankings, so there's no inherent bias for or against a team. If a matchup is favorable, it will not hold a personal grudge against one of the teams.
- As far as computer rankings go, the AMSTS Computer Rankings are one of the best. We are consistently in the top 5 of Ken Massey's matrix of computer rankings.
- It gives you three options with which to base your decisions: The win model, based on winning and strength of schedule, the points model, based on margin of victory and quality of opponent, and the combined method that merges both.
- The win ranking method:
- For every 5 points that teams are separated, the higher ranked team has a 20% additional chance of winning. I.E. team A is ranked 10.2 points in the team rankings, team B is 15.3, team B has a 70% chance of victory.
- The points ranking method:
- The point rankings can be compared straight up for a forecast margin of victory. If a team has 23.1 points in the points ranking, and their opponent has 17.6, one would expect the first team to win by 6.5 points (let's call it 7)
- The overall ranking method:
- This one is simple, you just take the higher ranked team. It's based off of the two metrics above, so you will be taking the best of both worlds.