NCAA Football Week 11 - Games that will/won't suck

November 11, 2015  — FordRChris

Let's just jump into it, shall we?  Here's how my week 10 predictions fared: Suck: Louisiana Tech 56, North Texas 13. Definitely suck. Oklahoma 52, Iowa State 16. Definitely suck. Michigan 49, Rutgers 16. Definitely suck. Hey, look at that! I went 3/3. By this point of the season, predicting games that will suck is child's play though.  How about the not suck ames? Not Suck: New Mexico State 31, Texas State 21. Not suck Oklahoma State 49, TCU 29. Sucked, but at least it was an upset. Washington State 38, Arizona State 24. It was a 1 TD game until 4 minutes to go, so I'll say not suck. 2-1, with the 1 being an upset. I can deal with that. So before we get to week 11, I am going to officially retire a couple of teams from the "not suck" because frankly, we all know that any game involving them will suck. Congratulations to the Mean Green of North Texas, and the Kansas Jayhawks. Greatness in awfulness, once only a dream, has been realized. Okay, let's move on:   Suck 1) Idaho vs Appalachian State

The Mountaineers of App State! Fresh off joining FBS in 2014, the Mountaineers are a force to be reckoned with. 10 points better than the average team, which Idaho is not. App State by 30 on the road in Moscow, with a 12.8% chance of Vandal victory.

2)  Iowa State vs Oklahoma State

Tempting to also retire the Cyclones, but they're more victim of scheduling circumstance than legitimately being terrible (though they are not good). Iowa State hosts the Cowboys, and despite the fact that the 'clones have ended the Cowboy national title hopes before, the models don't take that into

3) Navy vs SMU

Welp, after Navy beat Memphis last week, everyone is high on them. And SMU's only saving grace is that North Texas is only 30 miles or so northwest in Denton, and gave the Mustangs their only win of the year. Meanwhile, Navy continues the AACs domination of every team not named Notre Dame (Navy and Temple are a combined 15-0 against teams not named Notre Dame this year). Navy by 21, SMU only a 2% chance of victory.

Not suck 1) Colorado State vs UNLV

UNLV, despite hanging 80 on Idaho State, isn't that good this year.  Luckily for them, neither is 4-5 Colorado State, who only hung 65 on their FCS opponent. Needless to say, if you're looking for a reason to enjoy some Mountain West football, this will be your best bet. The Rams by .8 points, 55% chance of win according to the computers.

2) Houston vs Memphis

Oh, how this could've been a matchup of undefeateds. But Navy had to go and blow it for all of us with their 1920s style of football. Oh well, this will still be an interesting test to see how good of a team the largely untested Cougars are. The computers are unanimous in saying that the home team walks away with this one, being .4 points better than the Tigers, but only a 1.16% edge in likelihood of victory

3) Marshall vs FIU

This one is a strange one. The win method says Marshall has a near 80% chance of winning, but the points method gives a .14 point edge to FIU. This just goes to show one of the biggest shortcomings of the points method. A team that blows teams out and gets blown out is seen as "better" than a team that plays teams close, like Marshall. This one shouldn't be very close. I'd probably watch one of the other mid major games on offer.

And of course, for us Power 5 fans, here is the full week 11 predictions:
Date Home Visitor Home team win chance Home team MoV Models agree?
11/14/2015 Idaho Appalachian St 12.80% -30.59 Decisive
11/14/2015 Iowa State Oklahoma State 5.78% -25.03 Decisive
11/14/2015 Indiana Michigan 18.59% -19.99 Decisive
11/13/2015 Colorado USC 11.82% -17.92 Decisive
11/14/2015 Illinois Ohio State 11.99% -17.89 Decisive
11/14/2015 South Carolina Florida 8.60% -16.12 Decisive
11/14/2015 Syracuse Clemson 2.83% -16.05 Decisive
11/14/2015 FAU Mid Tennessee 26.60% -15.71 Decisive
11/14/2015 Arizona Utah 11.63% -11.80 Decisive
11/14/2015 Miami (OH) Akron 25.12% -11.67 Decisive
11/12/2015 South Alabama LA-Lafayette 56.11% -10.34 Toss up
11/14/2015 Rutgers Nebraska 39.42% -9.51 Decisive
11/14/2015 Miss St Alabama 25.31% -9.09 Decisive
11/11/2015 W Michigan Bowling Green 39.98% -9.04 Decisive
11/14/2015 UL Monroe Arkansas State 7.42% -8.04 Decisive
11/11/2015 Buffalo N Illinois 41.33% -7.73 Decisive
11/14/2015 Missouri BYU 21.00% -7.65 Decisive
11/14/2015 Auburn Georgia 47.35% -7.11 Decisive
11/14/2015 Nevada San Jose State 51.28% -6.50 Toss up
11/14/2015 Arizona State Washington 46.69% -6.49 Decisive
11/14/2015 Rice Southern Miss 32.79% -6.42 Decisive
11/14/2015 E Michigan UMass 31.08% -5.93 Decisive
11/14/2015 USF Temple 18.93% -5.36 Decisive
11/10/2015 Cent Michigan Toledo 28.89% -4.87 Decisive
11/14/2015 Texas Tech Kansas State 61.10% -4.40 Toss up
11/14/2015 Vanderbilt Kentucky 41.73% -3.01 Decisive
11/14/2015 Charlotte UTSA 56.45% -2.76 Toss up
11/14/2015 Florida State NC State 70.92% -2.22 Toss up
11/14/2015 Troy Ga Southern 17.08% -1.38 Decisive
11/14/2015 Marshall FIU 79.45% -0.12 Toss up
11/14/2015 Houston Memphis 51.16% 0.44 Decisive
11/14/2015 Colorado State UNLV 54.47% 0.80 Decisive
11/12/2015 Georgia Tech Virginia Tech 48.00% 1.41 Toss up
11/14/2015 Texas State Georgia State 60.27% 1.97 Decisive
11/14/2015 Duke Pitt 38.30% 3.21 Toss up
11/14/2015 Iowa Minnesota 92.81% 5.33 Decisive
11/14/2015 LSU Arkansas 82.15% 5.46 Decisive
11/14/2015 Air Force Utah State 54.85% 5.63 Decisive
11/14/2015 San Diego State Wyoming 93.58% 6.00 Decisive
11/14/2015 Baylor Oklahoma 58.18% 6.95 Decisive
11/14/2015 UCLA Washington St 66.51% 7.13 Decisive
11/14/2015 Army Tulane 29.80% 7.93 Toss up
11/14/2015 Old Dominion UTEP 51.47% 8.22 Decisive
11/14/2015 Hawaii Fresno State 46.90% 9.07 Toss up
11/10/2015 Ohio Kent State 69.89% 10.07 Decisive
11/14/2015 Cal Oregon State 83.71% 10.12 Decisive
11/14/2015 Michigan State Maryland 90.71% 10.54 Decisive
11/14/2015 Notre Dame Wake Forest 97.00% 10.77 Decisive
11/14/2015 West Virginia Texas 59.27% 11.62 Decisive
11/14/2015 Stanford Oregon 75.29% 12.33 Decisive
11/14/2015 Cincinnati Tulsa 61.77% 13.14 Decisive
11/14/2015 North Carolina Miami (FL) 64.24% 13.65 Decisive
11/14/2015 Northwestern Purdue 93.53% 14.32 Decisive
11/14/2015 Louisville Virginia 66.62% 15.40 Decisive
11/14/2015 Boise State New Mexico 76.23% 19.84 Decisive
11/14/2015 Navy SMU 98.01% 21.19 Decisive
11/14/2015 TCU Kansas 98.94% 32.84 Decisive
11/14/2015 Tennessee North Texas 96.32% 41.63 Decisive
11/14/2015 Texas A&M W Carolina 98.43% 42.93 Decisive

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