Week 6 NCAA Football: Games that will and won't suck
So continuing from where we left off last week, let's see how we did in our predictions:
Suck:
Cal 34, Washington State 28. Result: Not Suck
App State 31, Wyoming 13. Result: Suck
Temple 37, Charlotte 3. Result: Mega Suck
Not suck:
Alabama 38, Georgia 10. Result: Suck
Western Kentucky 49, Rice 10. Result: Suck
UMass 24, FIU 14. Result: Not Suck
I missed pretty badly last week on the "not suck" games. Let's hope for your sake that I do better this week.
First off, the games that will suck:
1) Kansas vs Baylor
This one should serve as no surprise as the Jayhawks have really excelled at a whole lot of nothing in the first five weeks of the year. The only game Kansas has played competitively this year was against FCS not-that-terrible-but-not-amazing-either South Dakota State. When you lose by 25 to Iowa State, you can be assured that your team is flat out garbage. The model, which tends to shy away from blowouts, says the Bears take this one by 33, which may be the biggest in-conference blowout ever recorded by the points model. Woof. The win model gives Kansas just a 2.2% chance.
2) Ole Miss vs New Mexico StateNew Mexico State also deserves a spot on the "worst programs in the history of the FBS" as perennial losers. This Saturday they'll march into Oxford, lay down, collect a paycheck and leave. The narrow losses to powerhouses like Georgia State and UTEP were misleading, as in week 1 when the Aggies went to the SEC, they lost 61-13 to Florida. Points model says Ole Miss by a whopping 38 points, which may also be a non-FCS record for the model. Only a 3% chance that NM State flies home as winners.
3) Texas vs OklahomaThe Red River Shootout will be all Crimson this year, or at least it should with the way the Longhorns have played. After a 43 point shellacking to TCU last week, any dignified Texas fans in the Metroplex have probably gone into hiding. Undefeated OU by 24.5 says the points model, with the win model giving Texas just a 10% chance. My how the mighty have fallen.
Games that won't suck: 1) Tennessee vs GeorgiaWe have some good matchups this week as conference play really gets into full swing. Hopefully we will avoid the Sun Belt conference for a while after last week. The Vols are 2-3 with a 2 OT loss to OU (by 7) and two heartbreakers against Florida (1 point) and Arkansas (4). The Bulldogs are quite the opposite, with a 4-1 record and big point swings in their wins compared to their loss to Alabama (28 points). It seems like how good this game will be is dependent upon which Georgia team that shows up. The one that beat South Carolina by 32 in week 3, or the one that lost by 28 to the Crimson Tide last week. Points model says Georgia by .17, win model a lot more bullish on Georgia giving them a 70% chance of victory.
2) Clemson vs Georgia TechAnother example of the win and points model disagreeing. The win model calls this one an easy Clemson win, giving them an 89% shot, but the points model says Clemson only ekes out a win by .22 points. Clemson is 4-0, with a win last week over Notre Dame, the only common opponent so far between the two teams (GT lost by 8 to them). Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets also seem to have a consistency problem (or perhaps it's opponent scheduling), with wins by 63 and 55 points, but losses by 7, 8 and 14 points. I fully expect this one to go the Tigers way.
3) Notre Dame vs NavyI hope the points model is right on this one, because yet again a disagreement exists between the models. Notre Dame sucks and hopefully this is the game that exposes them. 4-1 with "impressive" wins over Texas (sucks), Virginia (sucks), GT (below average), and UMass (sucks). But be sure to only watch this game if you can't get enough of the triple option, because despite having airplanes and aircraft carriers, Navy prefers to be on the ground, with their QB only attempting 10 passes last week (Air Force, also surprisingly ground based, with only 12 attempts). Despite that, the last two years have had this game come down to the wire (and surprisingly high scoring), so it seems worth the shot.
And now, for the rest of the games this weekend:
| Home | Visitor | Home team win chance | Home team MoV | Models agree? |
| Kansas | Baylor | 2.20% | -32.99 | Decisive |
| Texas | Oklahoma | 10.58% | -24.51 | Decisive |
| Georgia State | Appalachian St | 9.80% | -22.87 | Decisive |
| UTSA | LA Tech | 28.95% | -19.18 | Decisive |
| Colorado State | Boise State | 19.29% | -18.77 | Decisive |
| Missouri | Florida | 20.34% | -16.42 | Decisive |
| Army | Duke | 5.48% | -14.85 | Decisive |
| South Carolina | LSU | 12.98% | -11.51 | Decisive |
| UCF | UConn | 8.97% | -8.47 | Decisive |
| Rutgers | Michigan State | 7.66% | -8.38 | Decisive |
| E Michigan | Akron | 19.32% | -8.18 | Decisive |
| Fresno State | Utah State | 23.25% | -7.67 | Decisive |
| Virginia Tech | NC State | 28.62% | -7.35 | Decisive |
| USF | Syracuse | 16.41% | -6.13 | Decisive |
| W Kentucky | Mid Tennessee | 80.82% | -5.74 | Toss up |
| Nebraska | Wisconsin | 38.16% | -5.57 | Decisive |
| W Michigan | Cent Michigan | 38.69% | -5.57 | Decisive |
| Purdue | Minnesota | 11.07% | -3.76 | Decisive |
| Nevada | New Mexico | 47.44% | -2.92 | Decisive |
| Iowa | Illinois | 73.21% | -2.72 | Toss up |
| Kansas State | TCU | 25.39% | -0.57 | Decisive |
| Tennessee | Georgia | 29.69% | -0.17 | Decisive |
| Clemson | Georgia Tech | 89.00% | 0.22 | Decisive |
| Notre Dame | Navy | 39.32% | 0.47 | Toss up |
| Arizona State | Colorado | 67.31% | 1.02 | Decisive |
| Marshall | Southern Miss | 69.07% | 1.24 | Decisive |
| Oregon | Washington St | 75.80% | 2.81 | Decisive |
| Penn State | Indiana | 43.63% | 3.44 | Toss up |
| Utah | Cal | 60.29% | 4.25 | Decisive |
| UNLV | San Jose State | 57.55% | 4.66 | Decisive |
| Michigan | Northwestern | 26.84% | 4.87 | Toss up |
| West Virginia | Oklahoma State | 32.55% | 5.13 | Toss up |
| Hawaii | San Diego State | 58.85% | 5.28 | Decisive |
| LA-Lafayette | Texas State | 43.85% | 5.78 | Toss up |
| FAU | Rice | 46.39% | 5.97 | Toss up |
| North Texas | Portland State | 75.32% | 6.55 | Decisive |
| BYU | East Carolina | 59.34% | 7.10 | Decisive |
| N Illinois | Ball State | 41.40% | 7.23 | Toss up |
| Boston College | Wake Forest | 62.40% | 7.66 | Decisive |
| Florida State | Miami (FL) | 71.86% | 7.87 | Decisive |
| Texas Tech | Iowa State | 63.77% | 8.50 | Decisive |
| Pitt | Virginia | 80.09% | 9.35 | Decisive |
| FIU | UTEP | 51.63% | 10.72 | Decisive |
| Arizona | Oregon State | 55.53% | 10.81 | Decisive |
| USC | Washington | 70.47% | 11.15 | Decisive |
| Tulsa | UL Monroe | 75.00% | 11.19 | Decisive |
| Bowling Green | UMass | 67.07% | 14.87 | Decisive |
| Toledo | Kent State | 88.75% | 15.26 | Decisive |
| Ohio State | Maryland | 90.53% | 16.28 | Decisive |
| Ohio | Miami (OH) | 88.79% | 16.38 | Decisive |
| Alabama | Arkansas | 75.51% | 16.97 | Decisive |
| Miss St | Troy | 84.94% | 19.57 | Decisive |
| Air Force | Wyoming | 95.80% | 20.83 | Decisive |
| Temple | Tulane | 91.74% | 20.91 | Decisive |
| Houston | SMU | 94.81% | 23.40 | Decisive |
| Ole Miss | New Mexico St | 96.79% | 37.75 | Decisive |