Week 4 NCAA Football: games that do and do not suck
This is a new feature to AMSTS, but one I'm hoping you'll like. Every week, I will use the AMSTS Computer Ranking point predictor to predict three games that will suck, and three games that will not suck. Of course, I will filter out games against FCS teams in the "Games that will suck" category, because otherwise I would likely just be highlighting FBS vs FCS every week. However, I reserve the right to use FBS vs FCS games in Week 13 when the entire SEC plays FCS teams because that's complete bullshit.
For week 4, we will start with the games that will suck:
1) Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt
It's no surprise after Ole Miss stompedupset Alabama last week that the points rating system would be high on them, but the win rating is less optimistic, giving only about an 87% chance that Ole Miss comes away with the win. I guess nobody will be surprised, given that Vanderbilt started their season off losing to Western Kentucky by 2. Predicted Ole Miss margin of victory? 19.67 points, but let's call it 20.
This one is a bit more of a surprise, especially given two factors: 1) last week's dud against Northern Illinois for Ohio State and 2) Week 1 when Western Michigan only lost to Michigan State by 13 (though at home). However, the points system isn't nearly as high on Michigan State as the win system is, which can account for Western Michigan being a bit undervalued. The win system puts Ohio State as having a 91% chance of winning, while the points method largely agrees, declaring a 19 point win in the books.
3) South Alabama vs NC StateThis one is interesting for a number of factors. 1) The game is at South Alabama. How does NC State, a well known but certainly not football-prestigious school, end up having to play a game AT a Sun Belt school? Sure, home and home, but in the Sun Belt? Wow. Kudos to South Alabama for that one. Even still, the Jaguars are on pace to get stomped by the Wolfpack and while the win model puts an upset at a relatively high 23% chance, the points model says that NC State gets an away win by 19 points.
Now, the real games of the week, the games that won't suck: 1) Minnesota vs OhioWe saw how Minnesota handled MACtion last week, and clearly the models see that happening again. Ohio's impressive wins over top tier universities like Idaho, Marshall, and Southeastern Louisiana will adequately prepare them as they head to TCF Bank Stadium to face a squad with a loss to one of the best teams in the country (TCU) and a couple of 3 point wins. Count me as a nonbeliever in the model on this one, but it has the Bobcats pulling off the win by .41 points.
2) Arizona vs UCLAThis will at least make prime time college football worth watching. After stomping Virginia and UNLV and eking out a win against BYU, UCLA heads to Tucson to take on the Wildcats, who have yet to play anyone, apologies to Larry Coker and UTSA fans everywhere. The models disagree, with the win system saying that UCLA goes into the game with a 63% win chance, while the points system gives a .56 point edge to U of A. My money is on the points system on this one.
3) Syracuse vs LSUI was most surprised to see this game on the good games list. After years of S-E-C! S-E-C! S-E-C! brainwashing, I figured LSU would blow this one out. In fact, after looking at the numbers, I still think that is the case. The points model seems to love Syracuse for stomping Rhode Island by a score of 47-0, with a 13 point win over Wake Forest being also highly valuable, neither of which I agree with. Meanwhile, LSU taking Auburn to the woodshed is marginalized. Points model says LSU wins by .4 points, I'll go ahead and say LSU by 21.
For the rest of the games in week 4, see the table below:| Date | Home | Visitor | Home team win chance | Home team MoV | Models agree? |
| 9/26/2015 | Ole Miss | Vanderbilt | 86.97% | 19.67 | Decisive |
| 9/26/2015 | Ohio State | W Michigan | 90.73% | 19.31 | Decisive |
| 9/26/2015 | Notre Dame | UMass | 89.13% | 18.79 | Decisive |
| 9/26/2015 | Alabama | UL Monroe | 73.75% | 17.63 | Decisive |
| 9/26/2015 | Wisconsin | Hawaii | 45.72% | 16.42 | Toss up |
| 9/26/2015 | Northwestern | Ball State | 75.26% | 16.14 | Decisive |
| 9/26/2015 | W Kentucky | Miami (OH) | 78.21% | 12.46 | Decisive |
| 9/26/2015 | Rutgers | Kansas | 75.15% | 11.73 | Decisive |
| 9/26/2015 | Penn State | San Diego State | 79.35% | 11.18 | Decisive |
| 9/26/2015 | South Carolina | UCF | 91.41% | 9.99 | Decisive |
| 9/25/2015 | West Virginia | Maryland | 72.31% | 9.67 | Decisive |
| 9/24/2015 | Memphis | Cincinnati | 63.89% | 9.58 | Decisive |
| 9/26/2015 | Buffalo | Nevada | 60.86% | 9.41 | Decisive |
| 9/26/2015 | LA Tech | FIU | 35.61% | 9.24 | Toss up |
| 9/26/2015 | Iowa | North Texas | 90.67% | 8.69 | Decisive |
| 9/26/2015 | Baylor | Rice | 70.57% | 8.58 | Decisive |
| 9/26/2015 | Michigan State | Cent Michigan | 87.65% | 7.97 | Decisive |
| 9/26/2015 | Boston College | N Illinois | 40.61% | 6.87 | Toss up |
| 9/26/2015 | Nebraska | Southern Miss | 48.08% | 5.47 | Toss up |
| 9/26/2015 | San Jose State | Fresno State | 38.12% | 4.46 | Toss up |
| 9/26/2015 | LA-Lafayette | Akron | 56.86% | 4.42 | Decisive |
| 9/26/2015 | Houston | Texas State | 77.01% | 4.10 | Decisive |
| 9/26/2015 | E Michigan | Army | 84.12% | 3.81 | Decisive |
| 9/26/2015 | Toledo | Arkansas State | 84.25% | 2.96 | Decisive |
| 9/26/2015 | Wake Forest | Indiana | 19.76% | 2.54 | Toss up |
| 9/25/2015 | Kentucky | Missouri | 41.54% | 1.27 | Toss up |
| 9/25/2015 | Arizona | UCLA | 37.01% | 0.56 | Toss up |
| 9/26/2015 | Minnesota | Ohio | 33.86% | 0.41 | Toss up |
| 9/26/2015 | Syracuse | LSU | 43.45% | -0.58 | Decisive |
| 9/26/2015 | Michigan | BYU | 44.83% | -0.80 | Decisive |
| 9/25/2015 | Oregon | Utah | 24.74% | -2.13 | Decisive |
| 9/26/2015 | Florida | Tennessee | 71.41% | -2.69 | Toss up |
| 9/26/2015 | Washington | Cal | 26.28% | -4.91 | Decisive |
| 9/26/2015 | Texas Tech | TCU | 45.52% | -5.20 | Decisive |
| 9/26/2015 | Old Dominion | Appalachian St | 60.69% | -5.55 | Toss up |
| 9/26/2015 | Charlotte | FAU | 75.58% | -5.73 | Toss up |
| 9/26/2015 | Illinois | Mid Tennessee | 40.32% | -6.69 | Decisive |
| 9/26/2015 | Duke | Georgia Tech | 49.66% | -7.33 | Decisive |
| 9/26/2015 | Kent State | Marshall | 26.69% | -8.62 | Decisive |
| 9/26/2015 | Texas | Oklahoma State | 30.57% | -9.02 | Decisive |
| 9/26/2015 | Purdue | Bowling Green | 33.76% | -9.16 | Decisive |
| 9/25/2015 | Arkansas | Texas A&M | 17.68% | -9.39 | Decisive |
| 9/25/2015 | Virginia | Boise State | 34.47% | -10.97 | Decisive |
| 9/25/2015 | UConn | Navy | 31.99% | -12.40 | Decisive |
| 9/25/2015 | East Carolina | Virginia Tech | 31.06% | -12.49 | Decisive |
| 9/25/2015 | Oregon State | Stanford | 38.10% | -12.50 | Decisive |
| 9/26/2015 | Idaho | Ga Southern | 31.39% | -13.40 | Decisive |
| 9/25/2015 | Auburn | Miss St | 43.86% | -15.87 | Decisive |
| 9/25/2015 | Arizona State | USC | 48.19% | -16.34 | Decisive |
| 9/26/2015 | Wyoming | New Mexico | 13.19% | -17.00 | Decisive |
| 9/26/2015 | UTSA | Colorado State | 47.59% | -18.17 | Decisive |
| 9/26/2015 | South Alabama | NC State | 23.46% | -18.94 | Decisive |