NCAA Football Week 11 Predictions

November 8, 2013  — FordRChris

Week 11 brings a flurry of challenging games for the top contenders.  Baylor faces Oklahoma, Alabama faces LSU, and Oregon and Stanford battle for what will likely be the Pac 12 North crown.  Meanwhile, ACC favorite Florida State takes on a terrible* Wake Forest team (* = much to the chagrin of Mrs. AMSTS, a Wake alumna.)  The outcomes of this weeks games will dramatically shape who heads into the top positions as we get into crunch time in the season. Unfortunately for fans of close matchups, the computers tend to think these games will be decided by 10 or more points, with LSU having the best chance of the upset according to the points model.  The wins model, however, predicts a chance of OU taking Baylor to the house, though at the time of writing (Halftime on Thursday), that seems unlikely. Meanwhile, the two games of the week, according to the models at least, seem to be Tulane at UTSA, as the Roadrunners attempt to make bowl eligibility for the first time in their short tenure in FBS. The second game of the week is Houston at UCF.  Ranked #25 and #20 respectively, this game will determine what the best 1 loss mid-major team in the country is.  I'll bet that sentence caused you to stop everything you're doing and run to set your DVR. With that being said, here are the rest of the predictions.  The wins method is 149-55 since Week 7, while the points method is 150-54 straight up, and 101-96 against the spread.
Date Visitor Home Vegas line Home team win chance Home team MoV Models agree? Spread team pick Difference over spread
11/5/2013 Bowling Green Miami-Ohio -23.5 5.59% -23.13 Decisive Miami-Ohio 0.37
11/5/2013 Ohio Buffalo 3 47.40% -2.75 Decisive Ohio -5.75
11/6/2013 Central Michigan Ball State 19.5 83.10% 19.97 Decisive Ball State 0.47
11/7/2013 Oregon Stanford -10 39.61% -14.15 Decisive Oregon -4.15
11/7/2013 Oklahoma Baylor 13.5 53.37% 23.24 Decisive Baylor 9.74
11/7/2013 Troy UL-Lafayette 13 66.83% 8.71 Decisive Troy -4.29
11/8/2013 Louisville Connecticut -27.5 1.90% -33.60 Decisive Louisville -6.10
11/8/2013 Air Force New Mexico 3 49.91% 3.94 Toss up New Mexico 0.94
11/9/2013 Missouri Kentucky -14 4.42% -18.18 Decisive Missouri -4.18
11/9/2013 Florida State Wake Forest -35 4.93% -31.64 Decisive Wake Forest 3.36
11/9/2013 Boston College New Mexico State -24 6.87% -24.36 Decisive Boston College -0.36
11/9/2013 Fresno State Wyoming -10 7.14% -8.70 Decisive Wyoming 1.30
11/9/2013 Southern Cal California -17 8.26% -19.59 Decisive Southern Cal -2.59
11/9/2013 Iowa Purdue -16 15.22% -21.42 Decisive Iowa -5.42
11/9/2013 Auburn Tennessee -7 19.35% -10.63 Decisive Auburn -3.63
11/9/2013 Notre Dame Pittsburgh -4 19.56% -4.77 Decisive Notre Dame -0.77
11/9/2013 Texas Christian Iowa State -7 23.52% -9.49 Decisive Texas Christian -2.49
11/9/2013 Texas West Virginia -8 24.19% -11.00 Decisive Texas -3.00
11/9/2013 Western Kentucky Army -6.5 25.29% -8.29 Decisive Western Kentucky -1.79
11/9/2013 Arizona State Utah -6.5 28.08% -9.78 Decisive Arizona State -3.28
11/9/2013 Tulane Texas-San Antonio 7 33.32% -0.40 Decisive Tulane -7.40
11/9/2013 U.C.L.A. Arizona 0 40.69% -3.14 Decisive U.C.L.A. -3.14
11/9/2013 Brigham Young Wisconsin 7 41.55% 2.71 Toss up Brigham Young -4.29
11/9/2013 S-M-U Cincinnati 9.5 49.64% 9.31 Toss up S-M-U -0.19
11/9/2013 Utah State Nevada-Las Vegas -12.5 50.06% -22.19 Toss up Utah State -9.69
11/9/2013 Nevada-Reno Colorado State 9 50.23% 6.56 Decisive Nevada-Reno -2.44
11/9/2013 Houston U-C-F 11.5 53.22% 0.31 Decisive Houston -11.19
11/9/2013 Syracuse Maryland 5 53.40% -0.90 Toss up Syracuse -5.90
11/9/2013 Arkansas State UL-Monroe 6 57.04% -3.71 Toss up Arkansas State -9.71
11/9/2013 Vanderbilt Florida 10 58.42% 6.44 Decisive Vanderbilt -3.56
11/9/2013 Penn State Minnesota 1.5 59.00% -0.29 Toss up Penn State -1.79
11/9/2013 Illinois Indiana 10 61.73% 7.51 Decisive Illinois -2.49
11/9/2013 Nebraska Michigan 7 64.32% 1.30 Decisive Nebraska -5.70
11/9/2013 Western Michigan Eastern Michigan -2 64.37% -2.89 Toss up Western Michigan -0.89
11/9/2013 San Diego State San Jose State 7 66.74% 5.04 Decisive San Diego State -1.96
11/9/2013 Virginia North Carolina 14.5 67.28% 7.18 Decisive Virginia -7.32
11/9/2013 Virginia Tech Miami-Florida 6 69.65% 6.13 Decisive Miami-Florida 0.13
11/9/2013 Kansas State Texas Tech 3 74.37% 0.32 Decisive Kansas State -2.68
11/9/2013 Southern Miss Louisiana Tech 15.5 75.82% 13.48 Decisive Southern Miss -2.02
11/9/2013 Mississippi State Texas A+M 18 76.69% 9.31 Decisive Mississippi State -8.69
11/9/2013 Old Dominion Idaho 78.03% 2.29 Decisive Old Dominion N/A
11/9/2013 Louisiana State Alabama 11 78.21% 10.85 Decisive Louisiana State -0.15
11/9/2013 Colorado Washington 28 79.29% 20.14 Decisive Colorado -7.86
11/9/2013 No Carolina State Duke 9 79.70% 9.86 Decisive Duke 0.86
11/9/2013 U-A-B Marshall 21 80.35% 21.13 Decisive Marshall 0.13
11/9/2013 Arkansas Mississippi 17 80.93% 15.50 Decisive Arkansas -1.50
11/9/2013 Tulsa East Carolina 14.5 86.49% 15.39 Decisive East Carolina 0.89
11/9/2013 Tennessee-Martin Memphis 88.28% 25.00 Decisive Tennessee-Martin N/A
11/9/2013 Hawaii Navy 18 89.38% 14.22 Decisive Hawaii -3.78
11/9/2013 Kansas Oklahoma State 30.5 89.59% 23.25 Decisive Kansas -7.25
11/9/2013 Florida Intl Middle Tennessee 17.5 92.13% 20.05 Decisive Middle Tennessee 2.55
11/9/2013 UTEP North Texas 25 94.55% 21.97 Decisive UTEP -3.03
11/9/2013 Appalachian State Georgia 98.51% 35.17 Decisive Appalachian State N/A

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