It’s almost tournament time, and a big part of who can advance in the tournament is based off of how well the team is playing as we head into March.
With the help of MODERN TECHNOLOGY, we’ve blown up the AMSTS Computer Rankings to dissect exactly which teams have momentum going into the big dance, and which ones should be avoided.
First things first, let’s look at how everything tends to center out over the course of the season. Largely because of conference play being a snake eating its own tail, when we aggregate each conference’s ratings over the course of the year they tend to even out. Let’s take a look, with a high ranking being at the bottom, and a low ranking at the top thanks to Google Charts’ inflexibility.
The top chart shows the aggregate, as if the season started on the point of the line and continued. The second chart looks at each month of the season independently. It’s important to note this only gives us an idea of momentum: in February, we ignore how good a team was in December for these purposes. Since we’re looking at momentum, it’s no surprise it’s even across conferences, for as one team picks up momentum, it comes at the cost of others.
As we break down into individual teams, we can see how consistent some programs have been. Naturally, the teams at the very top and very bottom have remained consistent throughout the season, with Chicago State (bless their hearts) moving only two spots across the entire season (thanks to their three game winning streak in December, two of which were against non-D1 opponents). Let’s take a look at the twenty most consistent teams in college basketball this season:
While I’m not surprised about the Gonzagas, UNCs, Chicago States, Virginias and New Hampshires of the world, the two that stuck out to me the most were BYU, Eastern Kentucky, and Air Force, who have managed to be consistently mediocre. It’s almost hard to do that, but when we look at BYU’s schedule, they’ve consistently won the games they should, and lost the ones they were the underdogs in. This is true for Air Force and Eastern Kentucky as well.
So how about inconsistency? This was most surprising to me as SIX of the bottom twenty in consistency were found in the Big Ten. Clearly, a strong OOC for the Big Ten brought us into the conference season at which point teams managed to beat up on one another. This suggests to me that the Big Ten may have been the most competitive conference all year, with the exception of Northwestern, who managed to be the sixth worst team in NCAA Division I in February.
Overall, it seems that these inconsistent teams may be capable of a big run in March, so keep an eye out for Indiana (if they make it), Ohio State, and Seton Hall (again, if they make it) to potentially raise a few eyebrows. As for Chicago State? Well, at least they were consistent.
Below I’ve included the full 353 teams with their rolling momentum as well as their month-by-month momentum and included the average rank so that you can compare. Enjoy!
Team | Conference | Variance over season | Month to month total variance | Average computer poll rank |
---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago State | Western Athletic | 2 | 14 | 349 |
Incarnate Word | Southland | 3 | 35 | 336 |
North Carolina | ACC | 4 | 50 | 15 |
Gonzaga | West Coast | 6 | 60 | 6 |
Houston | The American | 9 | 76 | 14 |
Virginia | ACC | 11 | 19 | 7 |
New Hampshire | America East | 13 | 32 | 337 |
UNC-Asheville | Big South | 15 | 32 | 343 |
Buffalo | MAC | 16 | 31 | 16 |
Air Force | Mountain West | 17 | 68 | 214 |
Cal Poly | Big West | 18 | 25 | 324 |
Eastern Kentucky | Ohio Valley | 18 | 268 | 226 |
Duke | ACC | 19 | 25 | 10 |
Kentucky | SEC | 19 | 82 | 20 |
Idaho | Big Sky | 20 | 56 | 340 |
Wofford | Southern | 20 | 99 | 28 |
BYU | West Coast | 20 | 131 | 100 |
Maine | America East | 21 | 103 | 323 |
Purdue | Big Ten | 21 | 190 | 34 |
Kennesaw State | Atlantic Sun | 24 | 111 | 328 |
Portland | West Coast | 26 | 115 | 325 |
Western Carolina | Southern | 27 | 87 | 315 |
Cincinnati | The American | 29 | 39 | 23 |
Virginia Commonwealth | Atlantic 10 | 31 | 96 | 35 |
Longwood | Big South | 31 | 185 | 264 |
Morgan State | MEAC | 32 | 137 | 312 |
Western Illinois | Summit League | 32 | 162 | 304 |
Denver | Summit League | 34 | 195 | 305 |
Delaware State | MEAC | 35 | 124 | 333 |
Drexel | Colonial Athletic | 36 | 30 | 238 |
Jacksonville | Atlantic Sun | 37 | 206 | 267 |
Charleston | Colonial Athletic | 37 | 254 | 91 |
Drake | Missouri Valley | 38 | 223 | 89 |
Tennessee | SEC | 39 | 58 | 17 |
Central Connecticut State | Northeast | 39 | 109 | 287 |
Tennessee State | Ohio Valley | 39 | 116 | 295 |
Dayton | Atlantic 10 | 40 | 38 | 74 |
New Mexico State | Western Athletic | 40 | 119 | 40 |
Florida Atlantic | Conference USA | 40 | 267 | 169 |
Nevada | Mountain West | 41 | 17 | 19 |
Belmont | Ohio Valley | 41 | 242 | 33 |
UTEP | Conference USA | 41 | 301 | 292 |
LSU | SEC | 42 | 79 | 28 |
Tennessee Tech | Ohio Valley | 42 | 147 | 317 |
Wyoming | Mountain West | 43 | 101 | 321 |
Alabama A&M | SWAC | 43 | 178 | 322 |
Chattanooga | Southern | 43 | 197 | 273 |
Niagara | MAAC | 43 | 263 | 262 |
Michigan | Big Ten | 44 | 91 | 37 |
Rice | Conference USA | 44 | 199 | 235 |
Tulane | The American | 46 | 168 | 317 |
Sacred Heart | Northeast | 46 | 190 | 229 |
Central Florida | The American | 48 | 145 | 43 |
UNC-Wilmington | Colonial Athletic | 48 | 340 | 286 |
Missouri State | Missouri Valley | 49 | 75 | 164 |
Little Rock | Sun Belt | 49 | 120 | 266 |
Penn | Ivy League | 49 | 127 | 131 |
Furman | Southern | 50 | 209 | 55 |
Murray State | Ohio Valley | 51 | 88 | 39 |
Texas Tech | Big XII | 51 | 151 | 27 |
Towson | Colonial Athletic | 52 | 135 | 276 |
Washington | Pac 12 | 52 | 147 | 49 |
Milwaukee | Horizon League | 52 | 274 | 286 |
Elon | Colonial Athletic | 53 | 82 | 273 |
UNC-Greensboro | Southern | 53 | 125 | 51 |
UMass-Lowell | America East | 55 | 190 | 213 |
Florida International | Conference USA | 56 | 164 | 170 |
Colorado State | Mountain West | 56 | 261 | 201 |
Kansas State | Big XII | 57 | 164 | 50 |
Southern Miss | Conference USA | 58 | 157 | 139 |
McNeese State | Southland | 58 | 179 | 303 |
Western Kentucky | Conference USA | 59 | 65 | 105 |
Eastern Michigan | MAC | 59 | 136 | 189 |
Oral Roberts | Summit League | 59 | 182 | 253 |
Akron | MAC | 60 | 141 | 179 |
Arizona State | Pac 12 | 60 | 186 | 90 |
Louisiana | Sun Belt | 60 | 200 | 156 |
Georgia Southern | Sun Belt | 60 | 329 | 94 |
Toledo | MAC | 61 | 249 | 70 |
Fairfield | MAAC | 62 | 39 | 278 |
Fresno State | Mountain West | 62 | 94 | 78 |
Charlotte | Conference USA | 62 | 105 | 282 |
Cornell | Ivy League | 62 | 121 | 210 |
Louisiana-Monroe | Sun Belt | 62 | 303 | 152 |
Old Dominion | Conference USA | 63 | 271 | 55 |
Utah | Pac 12 | 64 | 98 | 140 |
Marist | MAAC | 64 | 141 | 237 |
SMU | The American | 64 | 206 | 149 |
Georgia State | Sun Belt | 64 | 209 | 93 |
Florida State | ACC | 64 | 284 | 43 |
Mercer | Southern | 64 | 326 | 247 |
Liberty | Atlantic Sun | 66 | 148 | 58 |
Utah State | Mountain West | 66 | 170 | 47 |
UC-Riverside | Big West | 66 | 171 | 293 |
North Alabama | Atlantic Sun | 66 | 286 | 279 |
Northern Iowa | Missouri Valley | 66 | 287 | 182 |
Vermont | America East | 67 | 146 | 57 |
East Tennessee State | Southern | 67 | 198 | 78 |
UC-Irvine | Big West | 67 | 200 | 51 |
Kent State | MAC | 68 | 74 | 122 |
Texas State | Sun Belt | 69 | 91 | 88 |
Western Michigan | MAC | 70 | 203 | 290 |
Coastal Carolina | Sun Belt | 70 | 235 | 178 |
San Francisco | West Coast | 70 | 246 | 87 |
Mississippi Valley State | SWAC | 71 | 85 | 324 |
Virginia Military | Southern | 72 | 162 | 295 |
James Madison | Colonial Athletic | 72 | 233 | 253 |
NJIT | Atlantic Sun | 73 | 215 | 153 |
Morehead State | Ohio Valley | 74 | 89 | 237 |
Maryland | Big Ten | 74 | 125 | 66 |
Evansville | Missouri Valley | 74 | 141 | 259 |
Lipscomb | Atlantic Sun | 74 | 236 | 50 |
Northeastern | Colonial Athletic | 75 | 143 | 79 |
Yale | Ivy League | 75 | 188 | 67 |
Louisiana Tech | Conference USA | 77 | 306 | 162 |
Illinois-Chicago | Horizon League | 78 | 184 | 181 |
Middle Tennessee | Conference USA | 78 | 246 | 245 |
Coppin State | MEAC | 78 | 276 | 309 |
Binghamton | America East | 79 | 63 | 299 |
Loyola-Maryland | Patriot League | 79 | 147 | 259 |
Bucknell | Patriot League | 79 | 231 | 110 |
Stony Brook | America East | 80 | 73 | 84 |
Duquesne | Atlantic 10 | 80 | 166 | 126 |
Wagner | Northeast | 80 | 185 | 218 |
Stetson | Atlantic Sun | 80 | 233 | 309 |
Utah Valley | Western Athletic | 80 | 244 | 85 |
Holy Cross | Patriot League | 80 | 321 | 217 |
Maryland-Eastern Shore | MEAC | 81 | 81 | 326 |
South Florida | The American | 81 | 125 | 71 |
Oregon | Pac 12 | 81 | 171 | 116 |
UAB | Conference USA | 81 | 246 | 158 |
Nicholls State | Southland | 82 | 134 | 280 |
Hofstra | Colonial Athletic | 82 | 216 | 64 |
Delaware | Colonial Athletic | 82 | 318 | 230 |
Siena | MAAC | 82 | 327 | 177 |
Austin Peay | Ohio Valley | 84 | 155 | 86 |
North Dakota | Summit League | 84 | 248 | 249 |
Northern Kentucky | Horizon League | 85 | 216 | 95 |
St. John’s | Big East | 85 | 454 | 122 |
UNLV | Mountain West | 86 | 197 | 155 |
Michigan State | Big Ten | 87 | 79 | 32 |
UTRGV | Western Athletic | 87 | 145 | 157 |
Northern Arizona | Big Sky | 88 | 183 | 283 |
Temple | The American | 89 | 71 | 83 |
Brown | Ivy League | 89 | 204 | 124 |
George Washington | Atlantic 10 | 92 | 143 | 283 |
Oakland | Horizon League | 93 | 84 | 167 |
St. Francis (PA) | Northeast | 93 | 88 | 185 |
New Mexico | Mountain West | 93 | 161 | 213 |
Virginia Tech | ACC | 94 | 97 | 49 |
Oregon State | Pac 12 | 94 | 205 | 126 |
Columbia | Ivy League | 94 | 331 | 249 |
Harvard | Ivy League | 95 | 206 | 107 |
Presbyterian | Big South | 96 | 149 | 163 |
Texas-Arlington | Sun Belt | 96 | 247 | 150 |
UMKC | Western Athletic | 96 | 262 | 252 |
North Dakota State | Summit League | 97 | 107 | 177 |
UTSA | Conference USA | 97 | 219 | 144 |
Alcorn State | SWAC | 99 | 227 | 290 |
UCLA | Pac 12 | 99 | 265 | 134 |
Central Michigan | MAC | 99 | 280 | 113 |
Boston University | Patriot League | 100 | 199 | 219 |
High Point | Big South | 101 | 87 | 177 |
Northwestern State | Southland | 101 | 121 | 278 |
South Dakota | Summit League | 101 | 261 | 307 |
Marshall | Conference USA | 101 | 413 | 183 |
Sacramento State | Big Sky | 102 | 76 | 298 |
Gardner-Webb | Big South | 102 | 503 | 135 |
Winthrop | Big South | 103 | 57 | 147 |
Loyola-Chicago | Missouri Valley | 103 | 303 | 126 |
Montana | Big Sky | 105 | 129 | 78 |
Rhode Island | Atlantic 10 | 105 | 157 | 177 |
Indiana State | Missouri Valley | 105 | 188 | 198 |
Davidson | Atlantic 10 | 105 | 390 | 93 |
Arkansas State | Sun Belt | 107 | 224 | 241 |
Villanova | Big East | 107 | 225 | 64 |
USC | Pac 12 | 107 | 360 | 150 |
Colgate | Patriot League | 108 | 144 | 102 |
Loyola Marymount | West Coast | 108 | 197 | 155 |
Memphis | The American | 108 | 218 | 101 |
Appalachian State | Sun Belt | 109 | 229 | 245 |
Navy | Patriot League | 110 | 84 | 246 |
Saint Mary’s | West Coast | 110 | 126 | 116 |
Marquette | Big East | 111 | 150 | 52 |
Troy | Sun Belt | 111 | 391 | 255 |
Purdue Fort Wayne | Summit League | 112 | 128 | 172 |
Mount St Mary’s | Northeast | 112 | 179 | 283 |
Kansas | Big XII | 112 | 188 | 44 |
Bradley | Missouri Valley | 112 | 371 | 167 |
Boise State | Mountain West | 113 | 328 | 227 |
Albany | America East | 115 | 308 | 240 |
North Carolina State | ACC | 117 | 198 | 87 |
Lafayette | Patriot League | 117 | 199 | 259 |
Dartmouth | Ivy League | 117 | 244 | 236 |
Southeast Missouri State | Ohio Valley | 118 | 216 | 191 |
Clemson | ACC | 118 | 273 | 101 |
Wright State | Horizon League | 118 | 274 | 111 |
Illinois State | Missouri Valley | 118 | 447 | 190 |
Valparaiso | Missouri Valley | 119 | 268 | 227 |
Florida Gulf Coast | Atlantic Sun | 119 | 341 | 196 |
Bowling Green | MAC | 120 | 200 | 105 |
Cleveland State | Horizon League | 120 | 235 | 265 |
Saint Joseph’s | Atlantic 10 | 121 | 162 | 164 |
Idaho State | Big Sky | 121 | 164 | 267 |
Miami (OH) | MAC | 121 | 239 | 157 |
Baylor | Big XII | 122 | 148 | 83 |
East Carolina | The American | 122 | 163 | 279 |
Pepperdine | West Coast | 122 | 351 | 237 |
Abilene Christian | Southland | 122 | 357 | 90 |
Wisconsin | Big Ten | 123 | 220 | 84 |
Hartford | America East | 125 | 356 | 135 |
Canisius | MAAC | 126 | 219 | 201 |
LIU Brooklyn | Northeast | 127 | 68 | 200 |
Seattle | Western Athletic | 127 | 245 | 230 |
Charleston Southern | Big South | 127 | 282 | 189 |
Detroit | Horizon League | 127 | 336 | 246 |
Massachusetts | Atlantic 10 | 128 | 210 | 256 |
Fordham | Atlantic 10 | 128 | 269 | 268 |
Bryant | Northeast | 128 | 272 | 268 |
San Diego State | Mountain West | 129 | 168 | 156 |
Georgetown | Big East | 130 | 180 | 136 |
Stanford | Pac 12 | 130 | 186 | 139 |
Auburn | SEC | 130 | 299 | 79 |
William & Mary | Colonial Athletic | 132 | 351 | 171 |
Eastern Illinois | Ohio Valley | 133 | 312 | 254 |
The Citadel | Southern | 134 | 287 | 259 |
Nebraska-Omaha | Summit League | 135 | 193 | 101 |
Central Arkansas | Southland | 135 | 414 | 277 |
Syracuse | ACC | 136 | 190 | 86 |
SIU-Edwardsville | Ohio Valley | 136 | 227 | 245 |
South Alabama | Sun Belt | 138 | 71 | 274 |
Youngstown State | Horizon League | 141 | 263 | 224 |
North Texas | Conference USA | 141 | 273 | 159 |
St. Bonaventure | Atlantic 10 | 141 | 369 | 174 |
Texas | Big XII | 142 | 168 | 123 |
California | Pac 12 | 142 | 195 | 282 |
Lehigh | Patriot League | 144 | 141 | 128 |
Long Beach State | Big West | 145 | 131 | 195 |
La Salle | Atlantic 10 | 146 | 347 | 225 |
Portland State | Big Sky | 147 | 170 | 220 |
UMBC | America East | 147 | 318 | 154 |
Colorado | Pac 12 | 147 | 495 | 125 |
Ohio | MAC | 150 | 175 | 236 |
Jackson State | SWAC | 150 | 278 | 256 |
DePaul | Big East | 152 | 185 | 184 |
Stephen F. Austin | Southland | 152 | 205 | 150 |
South Carolina State | MEAC | 153 | 108 | 249 |
Campbell | Big South | 153 | 358 | 130 |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff | SWAC | 154 | 194 | 234 |
Ball State | MAC | 154 | 317 | 187 |
Savannah State | MEAC | 154 | 355 | 225 |
Florida | SEC | 155 | 284 | 105 |
George Mason | Atlantic 10 | 155 | 343 | 137 |
Mississippi State | SEC | 155 | 408 | 44 |
Southeastern Louisiana | Southland | 157 | 111 | 283 |
UC-Santa Barbara | Big West | 157 | 127 | 132 |
Arizona | Pac 12 | 157 | 163 | 137 |
Quinnipiac | MAAC | 158 | 202 | 146 |
Houston Baptist | Southland | 158 | 266 | 234 |
Jacksonville State | Ohio Valley | 158 | 269 | 84 |
Grand Canyon | Western Athletic | 158 | 287 | 131 |
Princeton | Ivy League | 159 | 314 | 134 |
Richmond | Atlantic 10 | 159 | 489 | 188 |
Wake Forest | ACC | 161 | 220 | 210 |
North Florida | Atlantic Sun | 161 | 232 | 200 |
Army | Patriot League | 162 | 373 | 256 |
Louisville | ACC | 163 | 252 | 48 |
Cal State-Northridge | Big West | 164 | 149 | 220 |
Montana State | Big Sky | 164 | 211 | 180 |
Northern Illinois | MAC | 164 | 348 | 195 |
Radford | Big South | 165 | 472 | 62 |
Fairleigh-Dickinson | Northeast | 167 | 198 | 162 |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | Southland | 167 | 390 | 264 |
American | Patriot League | 169 | 450 | 213 |
Monmouth | MAAC | 170 | 283 | 226 |
Manhattan | MAAC | 171 | 224 | 295 |
Connecticut | The American | 171 | 262 | 198 |
Pacific | West Coast | 171 | 285 | 256 |
Lamar | Southland | 171 | 444 | 154 |
New Orleans | Southland | 173 | 202 | 155 |
Ole Miss | SEC | 176 | 243 | 100 |
Cal State-Fullerton | Big West | 177 | 219 | 140 |
UC-Davis | Big West | 177 | 280 | 254 |
Green Bay | Horizon League | 177 | 297 | 176 |
Iowa State | Big XII | 179 | 145 | 53 |
Florida A&M | MEAC | 179 | 254 | 237 |
Butler | Big East | 180 | 261 | 149 |
Northern Colorado | Big Sky | 180 | 339 | 70 |
Eastern Washington | Big Sky | 182 | 162 | 223 |
Providence | Big East | 183 | 224 | 152 |
Hampton | Big South | 183 | 297 | 208 |
Rutgers | Big Ten | 184 | 237 | 231 |
Cal State-Bakersfield | Western Athletic | 185 | 420 | 195 |
Southern Illinois | Missouri Valley | 186 | 75 | 295 |
Tennessee-Martin | Ohio Valley | 190 | 298 | 284 |
Iowa | Big Ten | 192 | 100 | 78 |
California Baptist | Western Athletic | 192 | 416 | 201 |
Rider | MAAC | 192 | 450 | 204 |
South Carolina Upstate | Big South | 194 | 339 | 207 |
Santa Clara | West Coast | 195 | 217 | 340 |
Iona | MAAC | 196 | 340 | 166 |
Grambling | SWAC | 197 | 166 | 221 |
Washington State | Pac 12 | 197 | 350 | 228 |
Boston College | ACC | 200 | 221 | 187 |
South Dakota State | Summit League | 201 | 139 | 173 |
Texas Southern | SWAC | 201 | 303 | 169 |
Vanderbilt | SEC | 203 | 305 | 277 |
Norfolk State | MEAC | 205 | 332 | 120 |
Miami | ACC | 205 | 360 | 176 |
San Diego | West Coast | 211 | 225 | 190 |
Arkansas | SEC | 211 | 232 | 154 |
Georgia Tech | ACC | 212 | 241 | 156 |
Notre Dame | ACC | 213 | 308 | 209 |
Tulsa | The American | 214 | 228 | 152 |
North Carolina A&T | MEAC | 218 | 370 | 179 |
Alabama | SEC | 220 | 254 | 101 |
Oklahoma State | Big XII | 221 | 212 | 203 |
Wichita State | The American | 221 | 482 | 90 |
Hawaii | Big West | 225 | 297 | 174 |
St. Francis (NY) | Northeast | 226 | 271 | 179 |
Illinois | Big Ten | 227 | 288 | 139 |
IUPUI | Horizon League | 227 | 529 | 215 |
Oklahoma | Big XII | 228 | 272 | 135 |
Pittsburgh | ACC | 228 | 319 | 197 |
North Carolina Central | MEAC | 231 | 247 | 199 |
Georgia | SEC | 232 | 361 | 226 |
Prairie View A&M | SWAC | 235 | 351 | 111 |
Robert Morris | Northeast | 237 | 587 | 223 |
West Virginia | Big XII | 238 | 307 | 214 |
Xavier | Big East | 242 | 442 | 94 |
Alabama State | SWAC | 247 | 521 | 267 |
Creighton | Big East | 248 | 325 | 111 |
Northwestern | Big Ten | 249 | 297 | 210 |
South Carolina | SEC | 249 | 354 | 201 |
TCU | Big XII | 251 | 331 | 109 |
Southern Utah | Big Sky | 252 | 145 | 150 |
Minnesota | Big Ten | 253 | 270 | 98 |
Howard | MEAC | 253 | 382 | 234 |
Saint Louis | Atlantic 10 | 258 | 305 | 169 |
Texas A&M | SEC | 258 | 381 | 177 |
Samford | Southern | 260 | 344 | 96 |
Nebraska | Big Ten | 264 | 314 | 202 |
Weber State | Big Sky | 272 | 199 | 175 |
Saint Peter’s | MAAC | 276 | 198 | 72 |
Ohio State | Big Ten | 279 | 511 | 84 |
Sam Houston State | Southland | 290 | 68 | 265 |
Bethune-Cookman | MEAC | 291 | 266 | 261 |
San Jose State | Mountain West | 303 | 167 | 144 |
Southern | SWAC | 306 | 274 | 227 |
Indiana | Big Ten | 306 | 453 | 161 |
Missouri | SEC | 314 | 472 | 201 |
Penn State | Big Ten | 342 | 535 | 95 |
Seton Hall | Big East | 369 | 443 | 165 |