Official AMSTS Computer Rankings 2014 NCAA Basketball Tournament Odds

With two of the first four games complete, here are the official (wins method) predictions for favorites in the NCAA tournament.  Unsurprisingly, we see an undefeated Wichita State at number one, a choice which the points method finds foolish (Wichita State being ranked 19th in the points ranking system).

Beyond that, there are few surprises, though things aren’t looking particularly good for Albany, even after a big win tonight.

Here’s the full list:

Region Seed Team Round 1 Round 2 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Final 2 Champ        
1 Midwest 1 Wichita St. 100% 99.0% 88.4% 75.3% 63.8% 49.5% 36.1%   3 to 1
2 South 1 Florida 100% 98.6% 82.6% 67.8% 51.2% 38.2% 21.3%   5 to 1
3 West 1 Arizona 100% 96.5% 75.8% 52.5% 36.8% 16.8% 9.4%   11 to 1
4 East 2 Villanova 100% 93.5% 65.2% 42.3% 26.5% 12.3% 4.9%   20 to 1
5 South 3 Syracuse 100% 84.7% 59.2% 34.3% 13.9% 7.7% 2.8%   36 to 1
6 East 1 Virginia 100% 94.8% 63.8% 37.1% 19.2% 7.7% 2.6%   38 to 1
7 West 2 Wisconsin 100% 93.5% 64.5% 38.7% 17.4% 5.8% 2.4%   41 to 1
8 West 4 San Diego St. 100% 86.4% 58.8% 26.3% 15.3% 5.3% 2.3%   43 to 1
9 South 2 Kansas 100% 89.6% 57.1% 32.4% 12.6% 6.7% 2.3%   43 to 1
10 East 3 Iowa St. 100% 84.7% 56.9% 28.3% 15.7% 6.2% 2.1%   48 to 1
11 Midwest 2 Michigan 100% 94.3% 59.7% 35.3% 9.7% 4.3% 1.7%   58 to 1
12 West 3 Creighton 100% 87.8% 55.9% 29.6% 12.2% 3.7% 1.4%   70 to 1
13 Midwest 4 Louisville 100% 81.9% 52.3% 12.4% 7.0% 3.2% 1.3%   78 to 1
14 Midwest 3 Duke 100% 83.1% 54.2% 29.2% 7.7% 3.3% 1.3%   79 to 1
15 East 4 Michigan St. 100% 83.5% 46.5% 23.9% 11.1% 4.0% 1.2%   84 to 1
16 East 5 Cincinnati 100% 69.6% 38.8% 20.1% 9.4% 3.4% 1.0%   98 to 1
17 South 4 UCLA 100% 81.2% 47.8% 13.2% 6.1% 2.7% 0.8%   129 to 1
18 South 7 New Mexico 100% 63.8% 29.0% 13.9% 4.4% 1.9% 0.5%   187 to 1
19 East 7 Connecticut 100% 61.8% 23.2% 11.5% 5.3% 1.7% 0.5%   216 to 1
20 West 5 Oklahoma 100% 70.1% 30.0% 9.9% 4.5% 1.2% 0.4%   268 to 1
21 West 6 Baylor 100% 63.4% 29.2% 12.9% 4.3% 1.0% 0.3%   313 to 1
22 Midwest 5 Saint Louis 100% 64.3% 30.3% 5.5% 2.6% 1.0% 0.3%   324 to 1
23 Midwest 7 Texas 100% 59.6% 25.8% 12.8% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3%   329 to 1
24 South 6 Ohio St. 100% 62.3% 24.9% 10.5% 2.9% 1.1% 0.3%   372 to 1
25 West 7 Oregon 100% 62.7% 24.2% 11.0% 3.5% 0.8% 0.2%   435 to 1
26 East 6 North Carolina 100% 56.7% 23.5% 8.4% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2%   465 to 1
27 Midwest 6 UMass 100% 59.5% 26.5% 11.2% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%   500 to 1
28 South 5 Va. Commonwealth 100% 53.1% 26.0% 5.8% 2.3% 0.9% 0.2%   501 to 1
29 South 9 Pittsburgh 100% 53.2% 9.6% 4.7% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2%   580 to 1
30 East 9 George Washington 100% 52.0% 19.0% 7.9% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2%   609 to 1
31 Midwest 8 Kentucky 100% 58.6% 7.5% 3.4% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2%   652 to 1
32 West 8 Gonzaga 100% 53.6% 13.4% 5.5% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1%   672 to 1
33 South 12a Stephen F. Austin 100% 46.9% 21.5% 4.4% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1%   840 to 1
34 East 8 Memphis 100% 48.0% 16.7% 6.7% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%   856 to 1
35 South 8 Colorado 100% 46.8% 7.7% 3.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1%   992 to 1
36 West 9 Oklahoma St. 100% 46.4% 10.4% 3.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1%   1,244 to 1
37 East 11a Providence 100% 43.3% 15.4% 4.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%   1,441 to 1
38 East 10a St. Joseph’s 100% 38.2% 10.7% 4.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%   1,550 to 1
39 Midwest 10a Arizona St. 100% 40.4% 14.0% 5.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%   1,649 to 1
40 South 10a Stanford 100% 36.2% 12.0% 4.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%   1,875 to 1
41 East 12a Harvard 100% 30.4% 11.2% 3.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%   2,731 to 1
42 Midwest 9 Kansas St. 100% 41.4% 4.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%   2,927 to 1
43 South 11a Dayton 100% 37.7% 11.2% 3.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%   3,164 to 1
44 West 11a Nebraska 100% 36.6% 12.5% 4.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%   3,182 to 1
45 West 10a BYU 100% 37.3% 10.5% 3.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%   4,125 to 1
46 Midwest 11a Iowa 50.9% 20.8% 7.6% 2.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%   4,738 to 1
47 Midwest 12b Xavier 54.5% 20.5% 7.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%   5,173 to 1
48 Midwest 11b Tennessee 49.1% 19.6% 7.0% 2.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%   5,719    
49 West 12a North Dakota St. 100% 29.9% 7.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%   10,715 to 1
50 Midwest 12a N.C. State 45.5% 15.2% 4.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%   13,051 to 1
51 South 14a Western Michigan 100% 15.3% 4.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%   39,985 to 1
52 Midwest 13a Manhattan 100% 18.1% 5.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%   48,011 to 1
53 East 14a N.C. Central 100% 15.3% 4.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%   68,680 to 1
54 Midwest 14a Mercer 100% 16.9% 4.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%   78,374 to 1
55 South 13a Tulsa 100% 18.8% 4.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%   89,064 to 1
56 West 13a New Mexico St. 100% 13.6% 3.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%   103,577 to 1
57 East 13a Delaware 100% 16.5% 3.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%   106,342 to 1
58 West 14a Louisiana 100% 12.2% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%   470,215 to 1
59 South 15a Eastern Kentucky 100% 10.4% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%   550,797 to 1
60 East 15a Wis.-Milwaukee 100% 6.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%   2,099,097 to 1
61 West 15a American 100% 6.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%   7,741,791 to 1
62 West 16a Weber St. 100.0% 3.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%   16,115,824 to 1
63 East 16a Coastal Carolina 100.0% 5.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%   29,686,553 to 1
64 Midwest 15a Wofford 100% 5.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%   32,041,970 to 1
65 Midwest 16a Cal Poly-SLO 45.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%   431,395,703 to 1
66 South 16b Mount St. Mary’s, Md. 47.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%   513,739,779 to 1
67 South 16a Albany 53.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%   909,758,778 to 1
68 Midwest 16b Texas Southern 54.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%   957,526,727 to 1