Official AMSTS Computer Rankings 2014 NCAA Basketball Tournament Odds

With two of the first four games complete, here are the official (wins method) predictions for favorites in the NCAA tournament.  Unsurprisingly, we see an undefeated Wichita State at number one, a choice which the points method finds foolish (Wichita State being ranked 19th in the points ranking system).

Beyond that, there are few surprises, though things aren’t looking particularly good for Albany, even after a big win tonight.

Here’s the full list:

Region
Seed
Team
Round 1
Round 2
Sweet 16
Elite 8
Final 4
Final 2
Champ
 
 
 
 
1
Midwest
1
Wichita St.
100%
99.0%
88.4%
75.3%
63.8%
49.5%
36.1%
 
3
to
1
2
South
1
Florida
100%
98.6%
82.6%
67.8%
51.2%
38.2%
21.3%
 
5
to
1
3
West
1
Arizona
100%
96.5%
75.8%
52.5%
36.8%
16.8%
9.4%
 
11
to
1
4
East
2
Villanova
100%
93.5%
65.2%
42.3%
26.5%
12.3%
4.9%
 
20
to
1
5
South
3
Syracuse
100%
84.7%
59.2%
34.3%
13.9%
7.7%
2.8%
 
36
to
1
6
East
1
Virginia
100%
94.8%
63.8%
37.1%
19.2%
7.7%
2.6%
 
38
to
1
7
West
2
Wisconsin
100%
93.5%
64.5%
38.7%
17.4%
5.8%
2.4%
 
41
to
1
8
West
4
San Diego St.
100%
86.4%
58.8%
26.3%
15.3%
5.3%
2.3%
 
43
to
1
9
South
2
Kansas
100%
89.6%
57.1%
32.4%
12.6%
6.7%
2.3%
 
43
to
1
10
East
3
Iowa St.
100%
84.7%
56.9%
28.3%
15.7%
6.2%
2.1%
 
48
to
1
11
Midwest
2
Michigan
100%
94.3%
59.7%
35.3%
9.7%
4.3%
1.7%
 
58
to
1
12
West
3
Creighton
100%
87.8%
55.9%
29.6%
12.2%
3.7%
1.4%
 
70
to
1
13
Midwest
4
Louisville
100%
81.9%
52.3%
12.4%
7.0%
3.2%
1.3%
 
78
to
1
14
Midwest
3
Duke
100%
83.1%
54.2%
29.2%
7.7%
3.3%
1.3%
 
79
to
1
15
East
4
Michigan St.
100%
83.5%
46.5%
23.9%
11.1%
4.0%
1.2%
 
84
to
1
16
East
5
Cincinnati
100%
69.6%
38.8%
20.1%
9.4%
3.4%
1.0%
 
98
to
1
17
South
4
UCLA
100%
81.2%
47.8%
13.2%
6.1%
2.7%
0.8%
 
129
to
1
18
South
7
New Mexico
100%
63.8%
29.0%
13.9%
4.4%
1.9%
0.5%
 
187
to
1
19
East
7
Connecticut
100%
61.8%
23.2%
11.5%
5.3%
1.7%
0.5%
 
216
to
1
20
West
5
Oklahoma
100%
70.1%
30.0%
9.9%
4.5%
1.2%
0.4%
 
268
to
1
21
West
6
Baylor
100%
63.4%
29.2%
12.9%
4.3%
1.0%
0.3%
 
313
to
1
22
Midwest
5
Saint Louis
100%
64.3%
30.3%
5.5%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
 
324
to
1
23
Midwest
7
Texas
100%
59.6%
25.8%
12.8%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
 
329
to
1
24
South
6
Ohio St.
100%
62.3%
24.9%
10.5%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
 
372
to
1
25
West
7
Oregon
100%
62.7%
24.2%
11.0%
3.5%
0.8%
0.2%
 
435
to
1
26
East
6
North Carolina
100%
56.7%
23.5%
8.4%
3.4%
0.9%
0.2%
 
465
to
1
27
Midwest
6
UMass
100%
59.5%
26.5%
11.2%
2.2%
0.7%
0.2%
 
500
to
1
28
South
5
Va. Commonwealth
100%
53.1%
26.0%
5.8%
2.3%
0.9%
0.2%
 
501
to
1
29
South
9
Pittsburgh
100%
53.2%
9.6%
4.7%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
 
580
to
1
30
East
9
George Washington
100%
52.0%
19.0%
7.9%
2.8%
0.8%
0.2%
 
609
to
1
31
Midwest
8
Kentucky
100%
58.6%
7.5%
3.4%
1.5%
0.5%
0.2%
 
652
to
1
32
West
8
Gonzaga
100%
53.6%
13.4%
5.5%
2.3%
0.5%
0.1%
 
672
to
1
33
South
12a
Stephen F. Austin
100%
46.9%
21.5%
4.4%
1.6%
0.6%
0.1%
 
840
to
1
34
East
8
Memphis
100%
48.0%
16.7%
6.7%
2.3%
0.6%
0.1%
 
856
to
1
35
South
8
Colorado
100%
46.8%
7.7%
3.5%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
 
992
to
1
36
West
9
Oklahoma St.
100%
46.4%
10.4%
3.9%
1.5%
0.3%
0.1%
 
1,244
to
1
37
East
11a
Providence
100%
43.3%
15.4%
4.6%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
 
1,441
to
1
38
East
10a
St. Joseph’s
100%
38.2%
10.7%
4.1%
1.4%
0.3%
0.1%
 
1,550
to
1
39
Midwest
10a
Arizona St.
100%
40.4%
14.0%
5.7%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
 
1,649
to
1
40
South
10a
Stanford
100%
36.2%
12.0%
4.2%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
 
1,875
to
1
41
East
12a
Harvard
100%
30.4%
11.2%
3.6%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
 
2,731
to
1
42
Midwest
9
Kansas St.
100%
41.4%
4.0%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
 
2,927
to
1
43
South
11a
Dayton
100%
37.7%
11.2%
3.5%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
 
3,164
to
1
44
West
11a
Nebraska
100%
36.6%
12.5%
4.0%
0.9%
0.1%
0.0%
 
3,182
to
1
45
West
10a
BYU
100%
37.3%
10.5%
3.5%
0.8%
0.1%
0.0%
 
4,125
to
1
46
Midwest
11a
Iowa
50.9%
20.8%
7.6%
2.6%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
 
4,738
to
1
47
Midwest
12b
Xavier
54.5%
20.5%
7.3%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
 
5,173
to
1
48
Midwest
11b
Tennessee
49.1%
19.6%
7.0%
2.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
 
5,719
 
 
49
West
12a
North Dakota St.
100%
29.9%
7.7%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
 
10,715
to
1
50
Midwest
12a
N.C. State
45.5%
15.2%
4.9%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
 
13,051
to
1
51
South
14a
Western Michigan
100%
15.3%
4.6%
1.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
 
39,985
to
1
52
Midwest
13a
Manhattan
100%
18.1%
5.2%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
 
48,011
to
1
53
East
14a
N.C. Central
100%
15.3%
4.2%
0.7%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
 
68,680
to
1
54
Midwest
14a
Mercer
100%
16.9%
4.7%
0.9%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
 
78,374
to
1
55
South
13a
Tulsa
100%
18.8%
4.7%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
 
89,064
to
1
56
West
13a
New Mexico St.
100%
13.6%
3.6%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
 
103,577
to
1
57
East
13a
Delaware
100%
16.5%
3.4%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
 
106,342
to
1
58
West
14a
Louisiana
100%
12.2%
2.4%
0.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
 
470,215
to
1
59
South
15a
Eastern Kentucky
100%
10.4%
1.8%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
 
550,797
to
1
60
East
15a
Wis.-Milwaukee
100%
6.5%
0.9%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
 
2,099,097
to
1
61
West
15a
American
100%
6.5%
0.9%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
 
7,741,791
to
1
62
West
16a
Weber St.
100.0%
3.5%
0.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
 
16,115,824
to
1
63
East
16a
Coastal Carolina
100.0%
5.2%
0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
 
29,686,553
to
1
64
Midwest
15a
Wofford
100%
5.7%
0.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
 
32,041,970
to
1
65
Midwest
16a
Cal Poly-SLO
45.7%
0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
 
431,395,703
to
1
66
South
16b
Mount St. Mary’s, Md.
47.0%
0.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
 
513,739,779
to
1
67
South
16a
Albany
53.0%
0.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
 
909,758,778
to
1
68
Midwest
16b
Texas Southern
54.3%
0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
 
957,526,727
to
1