The 2017 NCAA Tournament’s First Round Bracket Breakdown, According to Our Computers


Ride that Wichita State seeding. Ride it hard. Both the Win and Points Rating agree that Wichita State is the easy favorite going into their matchup with Dayton, and could certainly shock Kentucky in the second1 round. Here are some quick hits on what the computers think about upsets going into the tournament, as well as some of the closest games. Later this week we’ll have the full AMSTS Computer Brackets!

Win Rating says Points Rating Says
16 Seed Most Likely to Win Texas Southern (5% chance) NC Central (-19 points)
15 Seed Most Likely to Win Northern Kentucky (7% chance) North Dakota (-15.6 points)
14 Seed Most Likely to Win New Mexico State (19% chance) FGCU (-13.2 points)
13 Seed Most Likely to Win Vermont (27% chance) Vermont (-10.5 points)
12 Seed Most Likely to Win MTSU (41% chance) MTSU (-4.5 points)
11 Seed Most Likely to Win Xavier (42% chance) Xavier (+.4 points)
10 Seed Most Likely to Win Wichita State (59% chance) Wichita State (+7.2 points)
9 Seed Most Likely to Win Seton Hall (48% chance) Vanderbilt (-.7 points)
Closest matchup: Arkansas (8) vs Seton Hall (9) Maryland (6) vs Xavier (11)
Worst team in tourney: Mount St. Mary’s (201st) UC Davis (270th)
  1. “Third” that is…