2012 Elo Chess Bracket
And here it is, the official ELO-Chess Bracket using the computer rankings I’ve developed. As would be expected with any ELO-Chess system, very few upsets are predicted, though Missouri making the Final 4 as a 2 seed is noticeable as the one “upset” team that advances far. In fact, the bottom half of the West is the only bracket with upset potential, in the eyes of the computer.
I will post new predictions after every round, to see how accurate the system is.
A dynamic Division 2 addition to the rankings has made some changes this week.
Let’s investigate how it works:
Previously, all Division 2 teams were given a ranking of -15, which means the average team has a 95% chance of defeating a Division 2 team. This was based off of the football 1-AA ranking that I used, that demonstrated about a 5% chance that a lower division team would win. This clearly isn’t the case in basketball, as this year, Division 2 is 12-334 (3.5%). Now, I have redefined the rating to factor in how Division 2 teams do against Division 1, and for nerds, here’s the function:
Ranking = 20*LOG10(-(Win Pct of Division 2-1))^(1/3)/(Win Pct of Division 2)^(1/3)
The biggest effect this had was to penalize those teams with a weak schedule and lots of Division 2 teams in the mix, most prominently: Murray State. More or less this resolves the “Murray State Problem” that has been seen in previous rankings. The adjustment to the Division 2 rankings also helped the bottom teams, as now only one team is worse than your average Division 2 team (Binghamton). Other big losers were Eastern Illinois, UNC-Central, and High Point.
Bottom five teams this week are Bryant, Fairleigh-Dickinson, UC-Davis, and the two worst teams in Division 1 since this poll started: Towson and Binghamton.
Fact of the bottom 5: 100% of Bryant University classes are taught by the university’s faculty.
The story of the poll continues to be Murray State. At 18-0 in an Elo Chess method poll, it’ll be hard for them to drop without a win. Of course, the question remains if they will lose a game.
Meanwhile, Kansas saw a 6 spot bump after knocking off Baylor on Monday night. They crack the Top 10 for the first time this year.
The big losers of the week were James Madison, down to 234th.
Four teams this week are worse than your run of the mill Division 2 team, with Hartford climbing above the Division 2 line with a win over bottom feeder Binghamton in what is sure to be the worst game of college basketball played this season.
Fact of the Bottom 5:
#343 Fairleigh Dickinson University is officially recognized by the United Nations as a Non-Governmental Organization
Fairfield took the largest dive of the week, dropping an astonishing 66 places after dropping to 8-8 with losses to Siena and Manhattan. The same story can be said for James Madison, after losing to 3-13 William & Mary.
On the other hand, Central Connecticut vaulted up the rankings gaining 59 spots after the Blue Devils dominated St. Francis and Robert Morris, ending their 5 game losing streak.
In the Top 25, the big winners were Kansas, who beat #16 K State in convincing fashion, and Virginia, whose 14-1 record is likely keeping them higher ranked than they deserve to be.
Louisville was the Top 25′s biggest loser after a narrow loss to Notre Dame. Having previously only lost to #4 Kentucky and #11 Georgetown, the loss to #87 Notre Dame dropped Louisville down to 22.
Fact of the bottom 5:
#344 in Division 1 Towson University gives its students incentives to use reusable mugs.
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